Summa Silver Corp. (TSXV: SSVR, OTC: SSVRF, FRA: 48X)
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Traders indicate that copper inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) are likely to continue falling this week. Rapid inventory depletion could drive prices higher and incentivize traders to ship copper back to China.
In April, SHFE copper inventories plummeted by 60% month-on-month, with end-of-month stocks dropping to 89,307 tons—the sharpest recorded decline in inventory levels. Traders told Reuters that the inventory data to be released Friday afternoon (May 9) may show a further reduction, potentially pushing copper prices higher and widening the futures discount. Copper is a critical raw material for China’s vast manufacturing sector.
One trader noted that some buyers are still collecting copper ordered during the price slump triggered by Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs, which could further deplete inventories. Another trader pointed out that while most traded refined copper is domestically produced, the widening price gap between domestic and international markets may lead to more overseas copper flowing into China.
The Yangshan copper premium, reflecting China’s import demand, rose to $100 per ton on Wednesday, hitting its highest level since December 2023—a 43% increase from late March. Meanwhile, global copper supplies are flooding into the U.S. as traders rush to deliver shipments before President Trump’s tariffs take effect. This shift has driven COMEX copper inventories to surge to 156,623 tons by Wednesday, a 61% jump from late March and the highest level since October 2018.
Goldman Sachs has raised its short-term copper price forecast, citing easing global trade tensions and strong demand from China, the largest consumer. In a report released Wednesday, the bank adjusted its Q2/Q3 price forecast from a previous range of $8,620–$8,370 per ton to a new range of $9,330–$9,150 per ton, anticipating that heavy U.S. imports will deplete non-U.S. inventories this quarter. The forecast also accounts for China’s copper demand, which remains robust in 2025 due to strong exports. However, demand is expected to slow in Q3 as tariffs take effect. Goldman analysts predict that, in the long term, the copper market will face a supply shortage by 2026.
