Since U.S. President Trump announced tariffs on imported goods in February, industrial metal markets have shown divergent trends. While trade and geopolitical uncertainties have bolstered precious metals, concerns over global manufacturing have capped overall gains for industrial metals.
On the London Metal Exchange (LME), copper prices rose 12% in the first half of the year, second only to tin’s strong performance. However, tariff-related uncertainties have limited further upside. Currently, the spot price of CME’s U.S. copper contract trades at a $1,200-per-ton premium over LME’s international benchmark, reflecting regional supply-demand imbalances.
The tin market experienced extreme volatility, with three-month prices hitting a three-year high of $38,395/ton in early April before plunging to $28,925/ton during the “Liberation Day” market crash. Tight supplies have since driven prices back above $33,500/ton. LME tin inventories halved in H1, while Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks also declined steadily, fueling spot premiums and underscoring supply pressures.
The Trump administration’s 50% tariff on aluminum sent the U.S. Midwest premium soaring to $1,250/ton—far above LME’s benchmark. In contrast, premiums in Europe and Asia broadly softened due to weak demand and metal flow diversions. Though three-month LME aluminum rebounded from April’s $2,335/ton low to $2,600, its mere 3% H1 gain fell short of market expectations.
LME nickel prices remained flat in H1, though a May inventory decline—the first since March 2024—hinted at easing supply pressures, albeit with sustainability still in question.
Lead gained 6% in H1 on automotive battery demand, narrowing its discount to zinc. Meanwhile, zinc faced oversupply pressures, with global mine output up 5.1% year-on-year and China’s refined zinc production contributing to a 151,000-ton surplus. Zinc prices fell 6% over the period.
