The biotech industry is known for its volatility, with stocks often doubling in short periods due to key clinical milestones. Over a longer horizon—say, five years—such gains become even more plausible. Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) and Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM), two biotech firms with multiple growth catalysts, fit this profile.
To double investors’ capital by 2030, these relatively small drugmakers would need to deliver a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.9%. Here’s how they might achieve it.
Although Viking’s shares dipped recently on mixed Phase II results for its oral GLP-1 weight management drug VK2735, a closer look reveals promise: The highest dose group achieved an average weight loss of 12.2% in just 13 weeks. By comparison, Eli Lilly’s orforglipron took 72 weeks to show 12.4% weight reduction. While cross-trial comparisons are imperfect, Viking’ candidate appears more potent.
Market concerns focused on high dropout rates due to gastrointestinal side effects, but solutions exist. Lower doses showed fewer adverse reactions while maintaining strong efficacy. Viking could optimize dosing strategies or adopt gradual titration to mitigate issues. The oral GLP-1 market remains largely untapped—most current options are injectable—and oral therapies offer advantages in transportability and cost-effectiveness.
Meanwhile, the subcutaneous version of VK2735 is advancing in Phase III trials after stellar Phase II data. Success could propel the stock significantly. Viking’s pipeline also includes VK2809 for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), expected to enter late-stage studies soon. Though clinical-stage biotechs carry risk, Viking’s repeated strong Phase II data reduce relative risk. If the company executes well over the next five years, current undervaluation of oral VK2735 could translate into outsized returns.
Axsome has made substantial regulatory progress in recent years, securing FDA approvals for Auvelity (AXS-05) in major depressive disorder and Sunosi (referred to as Symbravo in the source) for migraines—despite earlier setbacks including a complete response letter for the latter.
Revenue growth remains robust: Q2 sales reached $150 million, up 72% year over year. With patented exclusivity lasting years and label expansions likely, Axsome’s momentum looks sustainable. For example, the company is preparing to seek approval for AXS-05 in agitation associated with Alzheimer’s disease (AD). With ~7 million AD patients in the U.S.—70% of whom experience agitation—and only one FDA-approved treatment, this represents a major opportunity. Submissions are planned for Q3.
Additional catalysts include AXS-12 for cataplexy and AXS-14 for fibromyalgia, with an application for AXS-12 expected by year-end. As Axsome secures further approvals and expands indications, revenue growth should accelerate. Given its current trajectory, the stock is well-positioned to deliver 100% returns by 2030.
