The latest forecast from market research firm Counterpoint Research indicates that Apple Inc. (AAPL) is expected to surpass Samsung and become the leader in global smartphone market shipments in 2025. This would mark Apple’s return to the top of the global rankings after 14 years. Data shows that Apple is projected to ship approximately 243 million iPhones this year, while Samsung’s shipments are expected to reach 235 million units. Based on this calculation, Apple’s market share in the global smartphone market will reach 19.4%, slightly higher than Samsung’s 18.7%. It is important to note that “shipments” refer to the number of devices manufacturers send to retail channels. While this is not equivalent to actual sales data, it reflects the manufacturer’s judgment of market demand and future sales expectations.
Counterpoint analysis points out that Apple’s strong performance is primarily driven by the iPhone 17 series launched in September this year. The series achieved “explosive” results during the holiday sales season, with sales in the first four weeks after its US launch being 12% higher than the iPhone 16 series during the same period. In China, a key overseas market for Apple, sales of the new model during the same period grew by 18% compared to the previous generation. Besides the impressive performance of the new products, consumer replacement cycles are reaching a critical point. Yang Wang, a senior analyst at Counterpoint, stated, “Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 pandemic are now generally entering the replacement phase, which is bringing a new wave of peak demand.”
In contrast, Samsung may face intense competition from Chinese manufacturers in the mid-to-low-end market in the future, which will limit its ability to reclaim the global top spot. Counterpoint concluded that, driven by the increasing appeal of the iOS ecosystem, the high level of interconnectivity between Apple products, and the impending upgrade cycle for a large number of users with older models, Apple will maintain its lead over other smartphone manufacturers until the end of this decade. This market dynamic not only reflects the sustained competitiveness of Apple’s products but also reveals the significant transformation underway in the global smartphone market landscape.
Apple Inc. continues to demonstrate its strength as one of the world’s largest companies. In the quarter ending September 27, 2025, Apple’s revenue increased by 8% year-over-year to $102.5 billion, setting a new revenue record for the September quarter. Services revenue reached $28.8 billion, also a historical high. Apple remains a popular stock worth buying, thanks to the unparalleled success of its iPhone-centric ecosystem. Although the company has faced some criticism regarding its integration of generative AI features, the iPhone remains a leading device in edge AI.
For investors seeking additional reasons to buy Apple stock, consider the company’s potential entry into the AI glasses market in the near future. Apple already possesses a robust spatial computing operating system—visionOS. It could pose a significant challenge to Meta in the AI glasses market—and, in the process, trigger a new wave of iPhone upgrades.
