The cryptocurrency XRP (XRP) has experienced significant price appreciation over the past year, largely driven by the outcome of the U.S. presidential election and the conclusion of long-standing litigation. As a core component of RippleNet’s international payment services, the cryptocurrency saw its price nearly quadruple in the last two months of 2024, rising from $0.50 to $2.70, and continued to climb into 2025. Although XRP retreated to $2.20 on November 6 after reaching an all-time high of $3.56 in July, its fundamentals indicate that the current price remains severely overvalued.
In terms of operational data, RippleNet processed approximately $57.7 billion in Total Payment Volume (TPV) in the quarter ending September 30, 2025. In comparison, digital payment company PayPal (PYPL) processed $458.1 billion in TPV during the same period. Although RippleNet is known for its low fees and fast transactions, its specific revenue scale is far below PayPal’s $8.4 billion. However, Ripple’s valuation, based on early funding rounds, is already comparable to PayPal’s, while XRP’s market capitalization is more than three times that of PayPal, indicating a clear valuation imbalance.
Some argue that XRP’s value is entirely driven by market expectations, similar to gold, Bitcoin (BTC), or other assets. However, the value of gold and Bitcoin is supported by scarcity and high acquisition costs—gold reserves are limited, and Bitcoin mining requires substantial resource investment. In contrast, XRP was issued with 100 billion tokens at its launch in 2014, with approximately 40 billion locked in reserves. The circulating supply is directly controlled by Ripple, and there is potential for additional issuance. This mechanism makes XRP closer to a network meme coin rather than a store of value with inherent scarcity.
If calculated based on the total token supply, XRP’s fully diluted market capitalization could reach $220 billion, approaching the valuation levels of financial giants like Goldman Sachs (GS) or American Express (AXP). However, its actual business foundation is far from matching this scale. Although RippleNet has potential in the global payment system, there has been no surge in payment volume, large-scale expansion of bank partnerships, or breakthroughs in regulatory clarity to support such a high valuation. Therefore, even at prices below $2.50, XRP remains highly speculative and lacks fundamental support. Investors should exercise caution and wait for more reasonable valuation levels or substantive progress in business development before considering investment.
