Gold Price Breaks Through $4,600 to Set New Historic High, Banks Project $5,000 in 1H 2026

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Published on: Jan 12, 2026
Author: Caroline Kong

Spot gold price surged past the $4,600 per ounce milestone on Monday, setting another new all-time high. As gold continues its remarkable rally, several top global financial institutions, including HSBC and JPMorgan, have released their latest forecasts, suggesting that gold could challenge the landmark level of $5,000 per ounce before the first half of 2026.

In its latest report, HSBC explicitly stated that the gold price could climb to $5,050 per ounce in the first half of 2026. However, the bank simultaneously slightly lowered its full-year 2026 average gold price forecast to $4,587 and projected that the price may retreat to around $4,450 by year-end, indicating a potential significant pullback after the rally. HSBC analysts emphasized that this would not be a straight-line rise, warning the market to prepare for “sharp volatility, sudden reversals, and wider trading ranges.”

Similarly, other Wall Street giants have painted a comparably bullish picture. JPMorgan predicts the average gold price will reach $5,055 in the fourth quarter of 2026, labeling gold a top-conviction bet based on expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Bank of America set a $5,000 target for 2026, while Goldman Sachs’ base-case scenario forecasts gold rising to $4,900 by December 2026. Morgan Stanley and UBS are relatively more conservative, both setting a mid-2026 target price at the $4,500 level.

The optimistic outlook from Wall Street is underpinned by a series of solid structural drivers. HSBC points out that persistent geopolitical risks and rising global debt levels will continue to drive funds into gold, the traditional safe-haven asset. According to data from the Institute of International Finance (IIF), as of the third quarter of 2025, total global debt had soared to nearly $346 trillion, equivalent to 310% of global GDP. This fundamentally erodes the purchasing power of fiat currencies and enhances gold’s value as an asset reserve.

On the other hand, robust demand from central banks and ETF investors provides a solid foundation for gold prices. Data from the World Gold Council shows that global gold purchases jumped to 700 tonnes in 2025, a record high for annual accumulation. Legendary investor Ray Dalio recently commented that gold’s outperformance reflects the erosion of fiat currency value, noting that if measured in gold terms, the actual value of U.S. stocks declined in 2025.

However, amid the widespread bullish chorus, risk warnings are equally pronounced. HSBC cautions that extreme price levels themselves could trigger corrections, especially if geopolitical tensions ease or the pace of Fed rate cuts slows. The current 20-day annualized volatility of the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is at a relatively high level of 22.02%, reflecting the anxiety and uncertainty of the market.

At the time of writing, spot gold is trading around $4,580 per ounce. From surging over 60% in 2025 (its biggest annual gain since 1979) to maintaining its strength at the start of 2026, the gold market is entering a new phase of bright prospects but a bumpy road ahead.

 

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