After recent significant pullbacks, Bitcoin prices hovered around $69,000 during Tuesday’s U.S. trading session and Wednesday’s Asian session. Market analysis indicates that as panic selling subsides and “whale” capital enters the market, the probability of a short-term bottom for Bitcoin has increased. However, whether the medium- to long-term trend can reverse still depends on whether large-scale incremental demand can return.
Wall Street investment firm Cantor Fitzgerald noted in its latest report that recent market selling pressure and the unwinding of speculative leveraged positions may lay the foundation for a short-term rebound and a more constructive recovery trajectory in the future. Ed Engel, a senior analyst at Compass Point, similarly believes that the cryptocurrency market is currently in a bottoming phase following a record level of panic selling last week.
Engel analyzed that investors locked in realized losses of approximately $10 billion last week, the second-highest level since June 2022. Such large-scale panic selling typically occurs in the final stages of a significant downtrend. However, he also warned that V-shaped reversals are rare after market declines, and Bitcoin could retest $60,000 or even drop to the $55,000 range. Since hitting its all-time high last October, Bitcoin’s price has fallen by about 45%, and last week, it broke below $61,000, marking its worst single-day performance since November 2022.
Latest data show that some of Bitcoin’s largest holders have begun buying the dip. So-called “Bitcoin whales” (wallets holding more than 1,000 Bitcoins) accumulated approximately 53,000 Bitcoins over the past week, the largest buying spree since last November. This move has helped stabilize the market after a sharp price pullback.
However, the breadth of returning demand remains limited. Brett Singer, head of market sales at industry research firm Glassnode, noted that while large holders’ buying has slowed the decline, the market still needs to see more capital inflows. Data show that, excluding exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and exchange funds, large holders have remained net sellers overall over the past year. Since mid-December, Bitcoin worth approximately $11 billion has flowed out of these wallets.
Many investors who bought through newly launched Bitcoin ETFs (such as the iShares Bitcoin Trust, or IBIT) are currently in loss positions, weakening their willingness to add more holdings. Some Wall Street analysts believe that the current accumulation resembles “damage control” rather than a genuine return of bullish market conviction. While this pattern has historically supported short-term rebounds, it alone is insufficient to generate sustained momentum.
Despite the challenges, some institutions maintain a constructive outlook on the market. Analysts at Bernstein argue that Bitcoin’s bearish scenario is historically at its weakest point, and the current price volatility is merely a temporary crisis of confidence. They have set a bullish year-end target of $150,000. Cantor Fitzgerald also emphasized that macro and liquidity conditions will provide support, including potentially looser monetary policy, the expansion of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, and seasonal liquidity improvements.
Overall, market views suggest that the liquidation and deleveraging process has cleared weak positions in the market, creating conditions for price stability. The probability of a short-term Bitcoin rebound is indeed increasing, but confirming the medium-term trend requires observing signals of broader participation. These include whether “whale” accumulation transitions from intermittent to stable and sustained, whether institutional funds such as ETFs shift from net outflows to sustained net inflows, and whether prices can establish a more solid bottom structure at key support levels. If these signals are absent, Bitcoin’s baseline scenario could be a period of range-bound consolidation and gradual recovery after a brief rebound.
