The cryptocurrency market has long been known for its extreme volatility. Last year, Bitcoin, the market leader, started strong and reached an all-time high of $126,000 in October, but its price has been on a downward trend since then. As of March 26, Bitcoin has fallen 19% this year, down approximately 45% from last year’s peak.
Although the current downturn continues, historical data may offer some reassurance. Since records began in 2010, Bitcoin has never recorded two consecutive years of decline, even during extended bear market cycles. To date, this leading cryptocurrency has experienced annual losses in only four years: 2014, 2018, 2022, and 2025. If this pattern holds, following a decline in 2025, Bitcoin is likely to achieve positive returns in 2026. Notably, Bitcoin’s positive years have often seen substantial gains, with the smallest annual positive return occurring in 2015 at 34%, while in 2023 and 2024, its price doubled.
Meanwhile, there are also positive signs in market capital flows. After four consecutive months of net outflows, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) reversed the trend in March. Data shows that Bitcoin ETFs have recorded approximately $1.3 billion in net inflows. Bitcoin is highly volatile, and it is not advisable to make heavy purchases solely to bet on a rebound. However, based on historical trends and the inflow situation of Bitcoin ETFs, this may represent a buying opportunity on the dip.
Undercurrents in technological development are sparking new concerns within the industry. A recent study by Google (GOOGL) warns that future quantum computers may be capable of breaking the encryption protecting Bitcoin and other digital assets with far fewer resources than previously estimated. The researchers noted that their latest calculations show the scale of quantum computing hardware required to break the elliptic curve encryption (ECDLP-256 problem) that secures crypto wallets could be reduced by a factor of about twenty compared to earlier estimates. Although such devices do not yet exist, this finding adds urgency for the industry to prepare in advance.
In a blog post, the researchers emphasized that the most clear-cut solution is to transition to post-quantum cryptography, a new security mechanism designed to defend against powerful quantum computer attacks. They urged the cryptocurrency community to act immediately, eliminating all avoidable risks, and framed the paper as a warning intended to buy the industry time to respond. In fact, such concerns have long existed. In January of this year, Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) established an independent advisory committee specifically to study the potential impact of quantum computing on blockchain.
On Tuesday, Bitcoin’s price showed no significant impact from the news of Google’s paper, rising 2.6% at one point during the session to reach approximately $68,300.
