In the face of sudden conflict in the Middle East, artificial intelligence tools, leveraging their efficient information processing and scenario analysis capabilities, are gradually transforming from auxiliary tools into indispensable decision-making partners for traders overwhelmed by a sea of information.
In the initial days following the outbreak of the Iran conflict, Maxence Visseau, founder of investment firm Arkevium, fully integrated AI into his investment decision-making process to clarify the conflict’s impact on the markets. Using large language models, Visseau significantly reduced research time by approximately eighty percent. He utilized Claude to simultaneously conduct stress tests on multiple scenarios, compare historical precedents, and untangle the chain reactions that could potentially impact various asset classes. He stated that it is precisely in such critical moments that the role of AI becomes indispensable.
Although Visseau admits that AI cannot yet reliably replace human judgment, he believes the efficiency gains brought by AI are increasingly crucial amidst the market turmoil caused by the conflict, which disrupted global energy supplies and resulted in numerous casualties. Interviews with investors around the world indicate that this conflict has further embedded AI tools deeply into trading workflows, even though many point out potential issues such as imprecise prompts and distorted results.
Nick Twidale, Chief Market Analyst at Sydney’s AT Global Markets, said, “We are witnessing history – the first major conflict where AI is being used in warfare, and simultaneously, traders are relying on AI to deduce the conflict’s landscape to an unprecedented degree.”
The most significant advantage of using AI tools like OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Google’s (GOOGL) Gemini, and DeepSeek is the substantial optimization of time management. Jian Shi Cortesi, a fund manager at GAM Investment Management based in Zurich, mentioned that previously, she might have spent half an hour reading information from different sources, but now she can get a summary of the latest war developments in just seconds. Gathering information on a specific company also takes only a day or less. “Doing research in the past was like digging a hole with a shovel; now it’s like working with a large excavator – efficiency has increased at least fivefold,” she described.
Another major advantage is the ability to mine historical data almost in real-time. Oil prices fluctuated significantly due to attacks on energy facilities in the Middle East. Anna Wu, a cross-asset strategist at Sydney’s Van Eck Associates Corp., used AI to look back over a century of history, analyzing oil price surges caused by various wars and identifying the best-performing asset classes in each phase. To enhance the analytical value, she also had AI cross-validate the findings with data such as median inflation and global economic growth rates.
For Gustavo Pessoa, founding partner at Sao Paulo hedge fund Legacy Capital, AI tools allow him instant access to information that was previously difficult to gather, especially as assessing the situation in the Strait of Hormuz becomes increasingly critical for investment impact. “From analyzing ship types, calculating the elasticity of oil demand, to estimating the number of barrels needed to stabilize crude oil flows, we use AI in all these aspects.”
However, AI is not flawless. AI has shown inaccuracies, from game development to news content presentation. A policymaker at the Bank of England warned that the widespread application of AI in trading could amplify market volatility and herding behavior. Arkevium’s Visseau emphasized the need to continuously verify the accuracy of AI outputs. “It’s an iterative process; I question the conclusions AI provides, revise the assumptions, and introduce new data dimensions.”
Nevertheless, the continuously improving effectiveness of AI tools also implies that roles such as junior research analysts may face an existential crisis.
