1. Total Metals Corp (TSXV:TT, FSE: O4N)
Total Metals Corp. is focused on advancing high-grade gold projects to production.
Spot gold prices hovered near the key $4,800 per ounce level ahead of the April 15, 2026 close, recently trading at $4,812.95, up 0.5% on the day but after falling nearly 1% in the previous session. This price level represents a drawdown of about 9% from the all-time highs reached in January, as market sentiment swings repeatedly between “peace expectations” and “inflation stickiness.”
Peace deal expectations erode safe haven premium
Over the past few weeks, a subtle shift has emerged in the Middle East situation. The United States and Iran are considering extending a two-week ceasefire to allow more time for diplomatic resolution of the conflict. Although shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains choked – with the US blockading Iranian vessels and Tehran keeping the critical waterway largely closed to other traffic – the two sides have reached an “agreement in principle” to continue diplomatic engagement. US President Donald Trump recently stated publicly that the nearly seven-week war is “close to over.”
This development has significantly altered the pricing logic of global assets. Michael Brown, Senior Market Analyst at Pepperstone, pointed out that gold is currently trading more like a high-beta risk asset than a traditional safe haven, with its traditional negative correlation to the US dollar and real yields having nearly disappeared. Brown believes that as long as the Middle East remains on its current path toward de-escalation, gold prices are likely to remain supported; however, to rebuild bullish confidence, the market must first hold firmly above the $4,800 level.
Inflation logic vs. central bank policy
The push for peace talks is easing the inflation spiral that markets had feared most. Oil prices have stabilized recently, reducing the pressure on major central banks to either hike rates further or keep them elevated for an extended period. However, Federal Reserve officials remain hawkish – Cleveland Fed President Hammack expects interest rates to remain “on hold for a good while,” and swap markets have fully priced out any rate cuts this year.
This poses a structural headwind for non-yielding gold. Suki Cooper, Head of Commodities Research at Standard Chartered, warned that gold is not yet out of the woods, stating that “the fragile ceasefire combined with the shift in focus to real yields means liquidity needs could continue to pressure prices further.” She believes that policymakers’ response to the competing risks of inflation and slower growth will be key.
Signs of marginal improvement in fund flows
Notably, ETF positioning is sending a positive signal. Data shows that gold ETFs have added approximately 25 tons so far in April, following sharp outflows of about 94 tons in March. This suggests that, after the panic selling triggered by the liquidity squeeze, medium- to long-term allocators are tentatively returning.
In summary, gold faces a fierce battle around the $4,800 level in the near term. If tangible progress is made in Middle East diplomacy, a pullback in nominal rates and the US dollar could help gold resume its upside momentum. Conversely, if the ceasefire collapses or inflation expectations reheat, gold will again face selling pressure under its risk-asset designation.
