The talking points are over. Canada’s infrastructure pivot has shifted from political rhetoric to hard-hat reality, and the stock market is paying attention.
Facing a precarious trade landscape and the relentless power demands of artificial intelligence, Ottawa is deploying $159 billion in federal capital between 2025 and 2030. The goal isn’t just to patch potholes or ease gridlock—it’s to leverage public dollars into a projected $1 trillion wave of private investment that rewires the country’s economic foundations. For investors, the playbook is becoming clear: follow the backlog.
Two engineering and construction firms at the epicenter of this mobilization—Bird Construction Inc. (TSX: BDT) and Aecon Group Inc. (TSX: ARE) —have already delivered year-to-date returns north of 50%. The rally has been brisk, but valuation metrics suggest the story may still have legs.
If you’re looking for a pure-play vehicle on Canada’s buildout, Bird Construction is the name that keeps surfacing. The company entered 2026 carrying an $11 billion backlog—a figure that represents more than three years of guaranteed revenue at current run rates.
What makes Bird particularly interesting is where those contracts are landing. The firm has quietly positioned itself as a go-to builder for data center infrastructure, the physical layer underpinning the AI revolution. While chip designers and cloud providers grab headlines, Bird is pouring concrete and laying conduit for the compute-heavy economy.
The balance sheet backs up the ambition. A string of disciplined acquisitions and organic wins has left the company with a fortress-like financial position—rare in an industry often plagued by working-capital squeezes. Trading at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 12.9x, with a forward PEG ratio hovering around 0.6, the stock still screens as undervalued relative to its earnings trajectory. The market, it seems, hasn’t fully baked in the profit conversion of that $11 billion order book.
Aecon Group occupies a different lane of the infrastructure highway, but it’s one with equally high barriers to entry. The company has carved out a specialized niche in nuclear power construction and refurbishment, a sector where Canada is quietly emerging as a global leader.
The proof is in the execution. Aecon’s work on Ontario’s Darlington Nuclear Refurbishment wrapped up under budget and four months ahead of schedule—a feat that does more than burnish a reputation; it unlocks access to a pipeline of future mega-projects. The backlog tells the story: from $6.7 billion at the end of 2024, it has ballooned to $10.7 billion heading into 2026.
Investors who had written off Aecon due to legacy fixed-price contracts are being forced to reconsider. Those high-risk agreements are rolling off, replaced by structures that offer better inflation protection and margin visibility. Analysts tracking the name now see a path to triple-digit EPS growth over the next 12 to 24 months. Yes, the forward P/E of 23.7x looks richer than Bird’s, but the forward PEG—between 0.2 and 0.6—suggests the premium is justified by the earnings ramp ahead.
Both names have already delivered strong gains, yet neither appears stretched by conventional growth-valuation frameworks. If you’re allocating capital today and looking for the cleaner, lower-multiple entry point, Bird Construction holds the edge. Its backlog provides multi-year visibility, its exposure spans both housing and data centers, and the PEG ratio signals there’s still room for multiple expansion as earnings materialize.
In a market where macro uncertainty remains elevated, owning companies that are literally building the country’s future resilience isn’t a bad place to be.
