In early April this year, SpaceX secretly submitted its initial public offering (IPO) documents to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), though its financial statements have not yet been released to the public. There are discrepancies among different media outlets regarding the company’s financial performance: Reuters reported that SpaceX expects approximately $16 billion in revenue and $8 billion in profit for 2025, while The Information reported roughly $18 billion in revenue and a $5 billion loss. The company plans to hold its IPO roadshow in early June, during which executives will pitch the stock to institutional investors, with a potential official listing in the summer. Previously, SpaceX completed a merger with xAI, giving the combined company a valuation of $1.25 trillion, and the IPO valuation target is $1.75 trillion. If achieved, this would become the largest IPO in history and place SpaceX among the top ten publicly traded companies globally by market capitalization.
Although SpaceX’s stock may surge on its first trading day, historical data suggests that long-term returns from holding IPO stocks—especially highly valued large-cap stocks—have been underwhelming. According to Jay Ritter, director of the IPO program at the University of Florida, approximately 9,300 companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq between 1980 and 2025 saw an average first-day return of 19%. However, the ten largest U.S. IPOs by market capitalization fell by an average of 13% in the three months following their listing and dropped by an average of 12% in their first year, with six of them underperforming the S&P 500 since going public. For example, Alibaba has risen 36% since its 2014 IPO, lagging the S&P 500 by 200 percentage points; Uber has gained 73% since its 2019 listing, trailing by 60 percentage points; Rivian has fallen 84% since its 2021 IPO, underperforming by 130 percentage points; Didi dropped 73% over the same period, also lagging by 130 percentage points; UPS has risen 50% since its 1999 listing, yet trails the S&P 500 by 350 percentage points; and Coupang has fallen 59% since its 2021 IPO, underperforming by 130 percentage points. In contrast, Meta Platforms, Arm Holdings, and Enel have outperformed the broader market. Taken together, while SpaceX may see strong initial demand after going public, its long-term investment value remains questionable. The wisest course of action may be to wait and see, holding out for a dip-buying opportunity.
As SpaceX moves forward with its IPO, the returns for early investors have drawn widespread attention. Tech giant Alphabet (GOOGL) stands to gain returns potentially reaching the hundreds of billions of dollars. By the end of 2025, a core subsidiary of Alphabet held approximately 6.11% of SpaceX. If the company achieves a valuation of around $2 trillion, that stake would be worth approximately $122 billion. Following the merger of SpaceX and xAI in early 2026, Alphabet’s ownership stake may be diluted to about 5%, corresponding to a valuation of roughly $100 billion. SpaceX aims to list as early as June this year, with a potential fundraising scale of up to $75 billion. Founder Elon Musk still holds about 40% of the shares, and after the IPO, his personal wealth could soar to the trillion-dollar level. Alphabet first participated in a $1 billion funding round alongside Fidelity Investments in 2015, when SpaceX was valued at approximately $10 billion, with the two institutions collectively acquiring about 10% of the equity. Although Alphabet has not separately disclosed its exact holdings, its financial reports show that in the first quarter of 2025, the company recorded approximately $8 billion in gains from private equity investments, with unrealized gains for the full year reaching $24.1 billion, most of which came from unlisted investments like SpaceX.
