The IPO process for AI unicorn Anthropic is advancing at full speed. According to multiple sources, the company has confidentially filed for an IPO and could list as early as October this year, with Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan Chase serving as lead underwriters. After completing its Series H funding round in May, the company’s post-money valuation reached $965 billion, while recent secondary market transactions have implied a valuation exceeding $1.2 trillion, solidifying its position as the world’s most highly valued privately held AI company.
In this capital extravaganza, early investor Amazon is undoubtedly poised to become one of the biggest winners.
The first source of gain is the direct financial return from equity appreciation. Amazon has invested approximately $8 billion in Anthropic cumulatively since 2023 and is estimated to hold a 15% to 20% stake in the company. Based on the $965 billion valuation, this equity stake has surged to between approximately $145 billion and $193 billion. In the first quarter of this year alone, Amazon recognized $16.8 billion in pre-tax gains from this investment. Should the $1.2 trillion secondary market valuation be used as a benchmark, the potential returns would be even more substantial.
However, the IPO brings far more than just paper gains; the deeper strategic value lies in the commercial partnership tightly woven between the two companies. Under an expanded cooperation agreement signed in April this year, Anthropic has committed to spending over $100 billion on AWS technology over the next decade. This includes up to 5 gigawatts (GW) of computing capacity for training and running the Claude model family, as well as large-scale adoption of Amazon’s self-developed Trainium AI chips and Graviton processors.
This means that Anthropic is not merely a financial investment for Amazon, but also a core anchor customer for its cloud business. A well-capitalized and continuously expanding Anthropic will directly translate into long-term orders for AWS, providing a clear path to returns on Amazon’s AI infrastructure investments. With Anthropic’s revenue experiencing explosive growth (estimated second-quarter revenue exceeding $10.9 billion with its first-ever profitable quarter), its ability to fulfill these commitments has been further strengthened.
From a valuation perspective, Amazon’s current stock price trades at approximately 26 times forward earnings estimates for 2027. Given the accelerating growth of its cloud business driven by AI demand, as well as the operational efficiencies and leverage gained in its e-commerce operations through AI and robotics technology, this valuation appears attractive. Anthropic’s IPO acts as a catalyst—not only will it crystallize Amazon’s financial gains, but it will also deepen its position as a leading AI infrastructure provider.
Risks and challenges remain. Anthropic recently adjusted certain commercial terms with Amazon, which could increase the future cost of accessing its large language models. At the same time, Amazon must navigate the resource trade-off between its self-developed Nova models and Claude. Additionally, the lingering controversy surrounding Anthropic’s supply chain risks with the U.S. government has not yet fully dissipated, posing a potential policy-related headwind.
