1911 Gold Corporation (TSXV: AUMB; OTCQX: AUMBF)
1911 Gold is Manitoba’s Gold Standard - Ready, Permitted and High-Grade 1911 Gold is an Emerging Gold Producer, with Significant Cash Flow Generation and District-Scale Growth Potential
Spot gold experienced another week of wild swings. After briefly breaking below the key $4,000 per ounce support level, the yellow metal staged a resilient rebound, but upside momentum proved insufficient. While gold ended the week with modest gains, it remained trapped near the middle of its recent trading range, with market attention now squarely focused on next week’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
The week started under heavy pressure for gold. Spot gold opened at $4,015.83 per ounce as traders continued to price in higher energy costs, resurgent U.S.-Iran tensions, and expectations that the Federal Reserve could maintain restrictive policy for longer. Selling pressure pushed gold to a weekly low of $3,982.32 per ounce. However, buyers stepped in decisively near the lower end of the recent range, setting the stage for a subsequent recovery.
Over the next two trading sessions, gold steadily clawed back ground. As Treasury yields eased from recent highs and the U.S. dollar lost momentum, prices climbed back above $4,100. The rebound, however, was reversed when weekly initial jobless claims unexpectedly plunged to 187,000 — the lowest level in decades. The data reinforced expectations that the labor market remains robust enough to keep the Fed focused on price stability. The dollar firmed in response, and traders trimmed positions ahead of the FOMC decision, pushing gold back below $4,100. Despite ongoing Middle East risks providing some safe-haven support, gold stabilized on Friday but failed to reclaim the $4,100 level, eventually closing the week at $4,051.51 per ounce — up roughly 1.43% on the week, yet still mired in the middle of its recent range.
According to the latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey, Wall Street professionals have turned notably cautious on gold’s near-term outlook, while Main Street investors remain optimistic. Among the 18 analysts surveyed, only four (22%) expect gold prices to rise next week, seven (39%) predict a decline, and another seven expect continued sideways trading. Meanwhile, in Kitco’s online poll with 249 votes, 59% of retail traders are bullish on gold for the coming week, believing that the $4,000 support level has once again proven its resilience.
Bulls and Bears in Balance as Market Awaits Fed Clarity
The divergence in market views stems from two opposing forces. On one hand, Brent crude holding above $100 per barrel continues to fuel inflation concerns and boost expectations of Fed rate hikes, which in turn strengthens the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields — headwinds for zero-yielding gold. As Lukman Otunuga, Manager of Market Analysis at FXTM, put it: “Elevated oil prices are stoking inflation fears which have boosted Fed hike bets. This has led to a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields – exposing zero-yielding gold to downside risks.”
On the other hand, gold has shown remarkable resilience around the $4,000 level. Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management, noted: “Over the past seven days, in the face of intensifying conflict in Iran, higher oil prices, a stronger dollar, and rising expectations of Fed hikes before year-end, gold ended flat — down then up. When an asset refuses to fall in the face of negative developments, that itself is a bullish signal.” Additionally, some analysts believe the Fed may not be as hawkish as markets expect. James Stanley, Senior Market Strategist at Forex.com, said: “With some pain starting to show in equity pullbacks, I think we’ll see Warsh try to support President Trump by sounding less hawkish than what many expect.”
Colin Cieszynski, Chief Market Strategist at SIA Wealth Management, struck a neutral tone, arguing that gold is unlikely to break out of its $3,960–$4,170 trading range in the near term. “Gold had a massive run from $5,500 down to $4,000, but not all geopolitical risk premium has been priced out,” he said. “The market needs time to sort itself out, and that could take three to six months.”
Heavy Event Schedule Next Week Could Provide Direction
Looking ahead to next week, the economic calendar is packed with high-impact events that could offer gold a clearer directional cue. Market focus will center on Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC rate decision and Chair’s press conference, preceded by Tuesday’s July Consumer Confidence report. Thursday brings a flurry of activity: the Bank of England’s monetary policy decision, U.S. Q2 advance GDP and PCE data, weekly jobless claims, and the Bank of Japan’s policy announcement — all due within the same 24-hour window.
In summary, until the Fed’s policy path becomes clearer, gold is likely to remain range-bound. The $4,000 support level has been repeatedly tested and has held, but the headwinds from elevated oil prices and a strong dollar are equally formidable. The short-term direction may ultimately depend on the outcome of next week’s slate of major events.
