Shares of AbCellera Biologics Inc. (NASDAQ: ABCL) rocketed nearly 40% on Monday, touching a 3½-year high intraday, after the company unveiled mid-stage trial results for its non-hormonal hot flash therapy that one analyst called “practically off the chart on everything measured.” The stock later pared gains to close up 34.8% at $9.34, lifting its year-to-date surge to 173%.
The Vancouver-based antibody developer reported that its investigational drug ABCL635 delivered an 83% mean reduction in the frequency of moderate-to-severe hot flashes over four weeks in a 92-woman Canadian study, compared with a 33% drop for placebo. Severity scores fell by an average of 58% for those on the drug, versus 12% in the control arm. Notably, 37% of treated patients had no remaining moderate-to-severe hot flashes, and 61% achieved at least a 90% reduction. Side effects were mostly limited to transient mild headache and fatigue, with no liver toxicity signals observed.
Wall Street quickly reset its expectations. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Steve Seedhouse wrote that ABCL635’s efficacy “is practically off the chart on everything measured,” clearly outperforming the currently marketed non-hormonal therapies Veozah from Astellas and Bayer’s Lynkuet. He lifted his price target on AbCellera to $20 from $12 and projected the drug could command premium pricing in a market the company estimates at more than $6 billion annually. BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan Seigerman described the results as “transformational” and forecast peak global sales of approximately $2.3 billion.
ABCL635’s profile addresses key weaknesses of daily oral competitors, which require regular liver-function monitoring and carry gastrointestinal side effects. The antibody is designed as a once-monthly self-injection that bypasses the liver, showing no toxicity issues so far. Dr. Kelsey Mills, a clinical associate professor at the University of British Columbia who was not involved in the trial, told a conference call her first impression of the data was “Wow,” and said a simplified monthly regimen could meaningfully boost patient adherence. Chief Medical Officer Sarah Noonberg added that a once-monthly injection could particularly appeal to women already comfortable with self-injecting medicines.
Chief Executive Officer Carl Hansen framed the readout as validation of AbCellera’s strategic pivot three years ago from discovering antibodies for other drugmakers to building its own pipeline. “Our vision has been to build Canada’s first global biotech company,” Hansen said. “Obviously nothing is certain, but today it sure looks like we’ve found our first winner.” ABCL635 entered clinical trials in July 2025 and now sits as the company’s most advanced asset. Two more antibody programs are being readied for clinical entry next year.
The drug still needs to clear a larger pivotal trial before seeking regulatory approval, and full 12-week data from the current study are expected later this year. But Seedhouse, in his note, summed up the mood: “The narrative about the entire company has been reset. It’s hard to see this train slowing down.”
