The current Bitcoin market is constrained by a significant absence of U.S. spot demand. Although on-chain data does not indicate extreme overheating or panic, the core driving force needed to break out of the consolidation zone remains lacking. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin reserve strategies of public companies, represented by Strategy, have fallen into difficulty due to competition from ETFs, forcing these enterprises to shift from net buyers to net sellers, further weakening the buy-side support in the market. Until spot demand shows substantive recovery, Bitcoin is expected to continue fluctuating within its current range, and participants are advised to remain vigilant.
CryptoQuant analysts point out that this stagnation is not accidental but stems from a deep-seated imbalance in capital structure. As of the quote price of approximately $78,419, on-chain indicators show the market at a delicate equilibrium point. According to the Delta-Thermo Market Multiple (DTMM) indicator, the current reading is 2.03. Although this is above the 1.5 threshold that represents the accumulation phase, indicating that the market has exited the bottom accumulation zone, it remains below the 2.5 threshold that signals the onset of the expansion phase, confirming the current neutral range-bound characteristic.
Further observation of holder behavior shows that the realized price for short-term holders is $69,371, which is below the current price, meaning that recent entrants are generally in unrealized profit, and selling pressure risk is relatively controllable. At the same time, the MVRV ratio for short-term holders stands at 1.13, indicating that unrealized profits remain low and the market shows no signs of overheating. The funding rate, reflecting derivatives sentiment, is 0.0056, maintaining a neutral level, suggesting that leveraged traders’ long-short sentiment is relatively balanced. These micro-level data collectively paint a market picture that features neither large-scale accumulation nor strong expansion momentum.
The deeper obstacle lies in the absence of U.S. spot purchasing power. The Coinbase (COIN) Premium Index, a bellwether for U.S. market demand, shows negative values on both daily and hourly charts, directly confirming that U.S. investors lack active buying interest at current price levels. Historical data has repeatedly verified that strong U.S. investor purchasing power is often the key engine that propels Bitcoin out of consolidation and into a bull market. Without this core driving force, the DTMM indicator will struggle to be pushed to the 2.5 expansion threshold. Should U.S. capital continue to stay on the sidelines, the market will not only find it difficult to generate upward breakout momentum but may also face downside risk as selling pressure accumulates, rendering the current sideways state fragile.
At the corporate holding level, the Bitcoin reserve company model is undergoing a systemic collapse. The sharp decline of the core case, Strategy (MSTR) (formerly MicroStrategy), serves as a microcosm of this trend. Data shows that over the past approximately 18 months, the total market capitalization of the top 50 Bitcoin-holding public companies plummeted from $150 billion in July 2025 to $67 billion in August 2026, with Strategy alone accounting for $79 billion of that market cap shrinkage. The industry is broadly distressed, with 86% of companies trading below their pre-Bitcoin-strategy share prices, and 70% of companies suffering market cap declines of 50% or more.
A critical turning point occurred in July 2026, when the top 50 companies collectively recorded net sales of 2,500 BTC for the first time since this trend emerged. This marked the rupture of the reflexive cycle that relied on high-valuation financing for purchases and then used holdings to support valuations, forcing companies to liquidate assets to repay debts. A more fundamental variable is that the spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024 have delivered a disruptive blow to such strategies, as investors can now directly hold Bitcoin exposure at low cost, thoroughly exposing the unsustainability of the reserve company strategy.
