Copper, Not Gold, Is the Real Driver Behind the Mining Stock Surge

Copper, Not Gold, Is the Real Driver Behind the Mining Stock Surge
Published on: Aug 13, 2026

Global mining stocks have rallied sharply in August, with the combined market capitalization of the MINING.COM TOP 50 rising from $2.169 trillion to $2.375 trillion—a gain of $206 billion in seven trading sessions. The sector has once again moved ahead of big tech for the year. Gold’s push above $4,500 an ounce contributed roughly $108 billion of that gain, but the longer view shows copper and base metals are the true catalysts.

The evidence lies in the divergence within the sector. Year to date, copper and diversified miners in the ranking have added $246 billion in market value, up 24%, while gold, silver, and royalty companies have gained only $18 billion, or 2.6%. Eight of the 18 precious metals companies are still down for the year: Lundin Gold is off 21.1%, Shandong Gold 19.9%, Northern Star 14.1%, Fresnillo 9.5%, Gold Fields 8.8%, and Barrick Gold 6.7%. Meanwhile, Glencore is up 40.9%, South32 39.3%, Southern Copper 37.9%, Teck 37.5%, Freeport-McMoRan 34.4%, and KGHM 30.8%, with copper prices repeatedly setting fresh Comex records.

August’s rebound is not without foundation, but it remains a recovery. On February 27, just before the Iran war, the TOP 50 was worth $2.748 trillion, a decade-high record; then $420 billion evaporated in March alone. Even after the best seven-session stretch in years, the sector is still 14% below its February peak.

At the stock level, from the July 31 close through Wednesday, Newmont added $22.5 billion and Agnico Eagle gained $17.9 billion. Barrick Gold moved the other way after a second-quarter miss and the settlement of its Nevada dispute with Newmont for $1.95 billion, which cleared the way for a North American listing and appears to have sent money that might have gone to Barrick across the street to its partner. Freeport-McMoRan climbed back to $98 billion, near the $100 billion mark, helped by a copper price that is firm partly because the company is not producing at full capacity—its Indonesian unit is repairing a furnace, the latest interruption since the Grasberg mud rush in September 2025. Other supply-side disruptions are also supporting prices, including Ivanhoe’s troubles in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Cobre Panama’s years-long absence, and Codelco’s production problems, which could even bring Codelco into the TOP 50.

The gap with big tech remains enormous. The Magnificent Seven are worth $23.4 trillion, while all fifty miners combined are under $2.4 trillion—the former is 9.8 times the latter. Nvidia alone is worth 2.3 times the entire mining sector, or about 24 BHPs. Amazon outweighs all fifty miners, and Tesla matches the eleven largest miners combined. The seven are also diverging: Nvidia is up 20% year to date, Meta is down 12%, and Tesla is down 27%.

History also cautions against excessive optimism about a resource-sector rerating. In January 2023, miners briefly outperformed big tech and market sentiment ran high, but mining stocks ended that year up only 1%. The FAANG five gained 74% that year and entered 2024 with a combined market value of $12 trillion.

Copper Gold Mining Technology