U.S. stock futures were little changed Wednesday as investors braced for two pivotal events: the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge and quarterly results from AI chip giant Nvidia (NVDA). Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.3%, S&P 500 futures edged down 0.1%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures hovered near flat, reflecting a cautious tone ahead of the releases.
At 8:30 a.m. ET, the Commerce Department will publish the July Personal Consumption Expenditures price index. The gauge rose 3.7% year over year in June, down from 4.1% in May, and economists expect a further cooling to 3.6% in July. While multiple inflation trackers have shown easing price pressures, the PCE remains the central reference for Fed policy. A continued decline would reinforce expectations that the rate-hike cycle has ended; stubborn inflation, by contrast, could keep rates elevated longer and weigh on valuations.
After the closing bell, Nvidia will report second-quarter results. The stock gained more than 2% in the previous session, snapping a seven-day losing streak that was its longest since 2022, and ticked higher in premarket trading Wednesday, suggesting some positioning ahead of the report. Beyond revenue and profit, analysts are focused on product roadmap, China sales, competitive dynamics, and the impact of rising memory prices on gross margin. Many investors believe a simple revenue beat is no longer enough to move the stock—the real focus is on next-quarter guidance and order visibility.
Last quarter, Nvidia’s data center revenue jumped 92% year over year to $75.2 billion, underscoring robust demand for AI infrastructure. Wall Street expects the company to guide for roughly $104.2 billion in third-quarter revenue and a non-GAAP gross margin near 75%. Guidance above those levels would signal accelerating AI chip demand, while a conservative outlook could trigger a reassessment of the sustainability of compute investment.
Tuesday’s broad rebound in chip stocks created a relatively supportive backdrop for Nvidia’s report. The Roundhill Memory ETF and iShares Semiconductor ETF rose about 3.5% and 1.5% respectively, though both pulled back slightly in premarket trading Wednesday. Mega-cap tech stocks were mixed and little changed, indicating that while sentiment has improved from the start of the week, investors remain reluctant to take large directional bets before the key releases.
From a market perspective, the PCE data and Nvidia’s earnings together form a dual verification. The PCE reading will directly shape Fed policy expectations and thereby influence rate-sensitive assets, while Nvidia’s results will test the durability of AI hardware demand—a bellwether for the tech sector and overall risk appetite. The convergence of the two events means both the macro liquidity environment and industrial earnings momentum face scrutiny on the same day.
If the PCE continues to cool and Nvidia delivers strong guidance, risk assets could gain fresh upward momentum, with tech and growth stocks likely to lead. Conversely, if inflation proves sticky or Nvidia’s outlook disappoints, near-term volatility may intensify, and the recently rebounding chip sector could face renewed pressure. Wednesday therefore stands as a critical juncture for assessing the macro trend and the health of the AI-driven industrial cycle.
