The current Bitcoin market is in a delicate phase of contention. On the one hand, on-chain data clearly delineates a structural accumulation picture in which large holders such as “whales” are actively increasing their positions. Their entry timing coincides with the turning-positive signals of indicators that, in historical experience, have presaged price rebounds, providing the market with a psychological anchor point for the bottom area. On the other hand, Strategy (MSTR), once the “largest buyer,” has completely switched to being a seller, and the enormous demand gap it left behind has not yet been effectively filled by any new force, with ETF fund flows overall still showing a net outflow.
After months of price weakness and capital flight, the Bitcoin market appears to have shown a glimmer of turnaround. The latest on-chain data reveals that those “Bitcoin whales” regarded as market bellwethers are quietly returning and actively buying. Since the October highs, the Bitcoin price has fallen by approximately 50%, currently hovering around $64,400, while other crypto tokens have suffered even steeper declines, and related ETF products have also experienced billions of dollars in outflows. Against this backdrop, the entry of large investors undoubtedly provides an important psychological support for market participants who are searching for bottom signals.
According to data from CryptoQuant, after excluding holdings on exchanges and mining pools, large Bitcoin holders have accumulated approximately 43,000 Bitcoins over the past 60 days, with a total value of about $2.75 billion at current prices. These whale cohorts began re-entering the market when the Bitcoin price dropped to around $60,000, ending a trend of continuous net selling over the preceding several months. At the same time, account balances of the slightly smaller “dolphin” tier have also increased. Separately, data from research firm Glassnode shows that medium-sized holders with positions between 100 and 1,000 Bitcoins, as well as “humpback whale” tier large holders with positions exceeding 10,000 Bitcoins, have also been consistently buying recently. Glassnode analysts noted that since late July, nearly all holder cohorts have exhibited clear buying behavior, with evident signs of market accumulation.
In its report, CryptoQuant further pointed out that the contraction in spot demand has been the primary factor suppressing Bitcoin prices since last year, but this contractionary trend may be nearing its end. Its tracked 30-day apparent spot demand indicator has rebounded significantly, recovering from -206,000 Bitcoins on July 23 to approximately -5,000 Bitcoins currently, standing at a critical juncture where it is poised to turn positive for the first time since February 26, 2026. The institution’s analysis suggests that, based on historical data, when this indicator shifts from negative to positive, Bitcoin prices tend to rise, with an average gain of approximately 18% within the 60 days following the turnaround.
Analysts have adopted a more cautious view regarding the collective actions of the whales. Some commentators note that the re-entry of heavyweight investors does add a basis for bottoming to the market, indicating that these long-term steadfast believers consider the current price levels attractive. However, other analysts emphasize that spot trading volumes in August are at multi-year lows, and market participation and overall confidence remain insufficient. The buying behavior of whales in a low-volatility environment confirms structural accumulation more than it guarantees an immediate onset of a bull market. A comprehensive market recovery may still require coordination with external conditions such as the macroeconomic environment. In the absence of new catalysts, the current atmosphere of sluggish wait-and-see is expected to persist.
