The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s launch of a long-term bond buyback program is reshaping macro liquidity expectations and is viewed by the market as a potential turning point that could relieve pressure on crypto asset prices. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly confirmed that the government will conduct such operations on a regular basis, aiming to correct deviations between bond yields and fundamentals, thereby providing structural support for Bitcoin to break free from high-yield suppression. Bessent revealed that the buyback scale is expected to exceed the previously announced $4 billion cap. At the time, the 10-year Treasury yield was hovering around 4.68%, a modest three-basis-point increase from the previous day, yet still constituting a significant source of pressure. Following the release of the buyback signal, Bitcoin responded swiftly, nearly touching the $73,000 level. Data shows that capital flows are highly sensitive to interest rates, and Bessent’s remarks directly triggered a valuation recovery in risk assets, with the market interpreting this move as a substantive hedge against rising long-term borrowing costs.
Mark Connors, Chief Investment Officer at Risk Dimensions, noted that the current $4 billion is merely the beginning, and as the government faces increasing difficulty in finding buyers for its debt, monthly buyback amounts are expected to expand to between $10 billion and $30 billion. This liquidity injection has altered Bitcoin cycle expectations: Connors no longer believes prices will remain depressed until November; instead, he suggests that if the supplementary leverage ratio is relaxed to allow banks to increase their holdings of Treasury bonds, Bitcoin could move directly toward $180,000. His long-term price forecast for the period before 2030 ranges from $180,000 to $360,000, emphasizing that buyback operations, by supporting bond prices and suppressing yields, eliminate the macro headwinds that have been crowding out capital for risk assets. Short-term movements, however, will depend on technical factors and legislative dynamics.
Brian Armstrong, Chief Executive Officer of Coinbase (COIN), projected a Bitcoin price range of $300,000 to $400,000 by 2030, and this valuation target, significantly above current levels, represents a strong expression of confidence from a top executive regarding the appreciation potential of crypto assets. In an interview, he stated that the market may be nearing the end of the bear phase, with core arguments encompassing accelerated institutional adoption, increasing regulatory clarity, and the scarcity afforded by Bitcoin’s fixed supply. Despite the optimistic long-term outlook, investors must confront Bitcoin’s inherent high volatility, as variables such as regulatory decisions, macroeconomic conditions, and technological developments could all overturn established predictions. Armstrong’s remarks carry reference value but are not definitive facts; market participants should conduct their own research, carefully assess complex risks, and avoid relying solely on price targets for decision-making.
