The U.S. Department of Energy has initiated the procedure for releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Although on paper this creates an expectation of supply, because there is a clear time lag between the application deadline and physical delivery, and the key economic data reflect activity from an earlier period, the announcement in the short term acts more on psychology than as an immediate change to supply and demand fundamentals. At the same time, Bitcoin has shown a significant rebound after experiencing a deep correction.
The U.S. Department of Energy is allowing up to 40 million barrels of crude oil to be withdrawn from the reserve. This measure is intended to provide a potential source of oil supply for later this year, but as of now, no batch of crude oil has actually been allocated. The opening of the application channel marks a new implementation phase for the previously announced plan to release 172 million barrels of crude oil, of which 40 million barrels is the upper limit of the total volume proposed for release in this round, rather than the physical quantity that has already entered the market.
If the Department of Energy’s measure has indeed changed people’s expectations for oil price trends, the path of change in Bitcoin’s price would be reflected through transmission mechanisms such as inflation expectations, bond yields, and the direction of Federal Reserve interest rates, but the data currently available do not show that this specific announcement has had a substantial impact on those markets or on Bitcoin’s price.
When checking Bitcoin’s price on the CryptoSlate website on September 30, its value was about $83,000. These data are for reference only and cannot prove that the price movement was triggered by that announcement.
Bitcoin (BTC) is still down 34% from its all-time high of $126,000 set last October, but its astonishing reversal over the past two months is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. In July, Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000, and it now trades close to $85,000. The key to understanding Bitcoin has always been its four-year boom-and-bust cycle. In short, there are usually three good years, followed by an epic crash in the fourth year, and then the cycle restarts and Bitcoin charges all the way toward a new all-time high. If the four-year cycle still applies, Bitcoin may have already bottomed. Back in July, Coinbase Global (COIN) CEO Brian Armstrong said Bitcoin had already bottomed, when Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000. Once the calendar turns to October, it will be almost exactly 12 months since Bitcoin peaked at $126,000, meaning that “epic crash” year is about to end. This is laying the foundation for a major rise in Bitcoin in 2027 and an even larger rise at the next Bitcoin halving in 2028. Historically, these halving events have been the starting signal for major Bitcoin rallies.
At present, it is difficult to point to a specific catalyst for Bitcoin. Bitcoin has recently reclaimed its 365-day moving average of $80,500, which in the past has usually marked the beginning of a new Bitcoin bull market cycle. Bulls, not bears, are currently in control. Market sentiment has shifted, and investors are the most bullish on cryptocurrency since December 2024. This creates favorable conditions for Bitcoin, which may rise to $100,000 before the end of this year.
