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Despite the existence of a long-term national capacity cap, strong profits are still encouraging smelters to maximize output. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday showed that China’s aluminum output in August rose 4.7% year-on-year to 3.98 million metric tons, setting a record high. This output increased from slightly below 3.9 million tons in July and approached the previous monthly high of 3.979 million tons set in June.
In the first eight months of this year, China’s aluminum output was 31.12 million tons, up 3.9% year-on-year. Annualized at this pace, output would reach about 46.7 million tons, far exceeding the country’s 45 million-ton capacity cap. Since 2017, China has imposed strict controls on aluminum smelting capacity. In 2025, China produced 45.02 million tons of primary aluminum, up 2.4% year-on-year.
The increase in output has been supported by strong profits. After supply disruptions caused by the Middle East war, aluminum prices rose, further expanding profit margins. The benchmark three-month aluminum contract CMAL3 has risen nearly 8% so far this year and gained 1.82% in August.
Output of ten nonferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, lead, zinc and nickel, rose 1.6% year-on-year in August to 7.1 million tons. From January to August, output of these ten metals increased 2.9% to 55.58 million tons.
China’s August aluminum output set a new historical record, driven by strong profits, even though the national capacity cap remains in place. The pace of output growth in the first eight months has already pushed annualized output far beyond the policy red line of 45 million tons, demonstrating smelters’ enthusiasm for production under the incentives of prices and profits. At the same time, output of ten nonferrous metals has also maintained a growth trend, reflecting the overall expansion pattern of the nonferrous metals industry.
