Copper and nickel prices could roughly double over the next decade as construction, electrification and clean-energy demand outstrip what mines and refiners can deliver, according to a new industrial-metals report from Coface.
The report, titled “Back to the Future (Cycle),” projects that aluminum, copper and nickel will face supply deficits averaging about 10% of demand by 2035.Over the coming decade, annual supply growth for the three metals is forecast at just 0.4% for aluminum, 1.0% for copper and 1.5% for nickel, against demand expansion of roughly 1.8% a year. Under a net-zero emissions scenario, that demand growth accelerates to about 2.2% for aluminum and copper, and 4.5% for nickel.
Clean-energy technologies alone could account for about 35% of global copper and nickel demand by 2035, the report said. Electrification already drives close to three-quarters of global copper use, with the rapid buildout of data centers adding further pressure.
Michael Taylor, President, CEO, and Director of SLAM Exploration Ltd (TSXV: SXL), elaborate on expectations to receive significant cash and 3 copper-nickel occurrences at Goodwin in an interview with METALS 100 in September 2024. SLAM Exploration holds the Goodwin copper-nickel project and the Mine Road VMS copper zinc silver project in the mineral-rich Bathurst Mining Camp of New Brunswick. Recently, SLAM has discovered multiple gold veins at Medieval.
Copper and nickel face the steepest shortfalls. Coface projects a refined copper deficit of 1.5 million to 6.5 million tons by 2035, about 11% of expected demand; under a net-zero scenario, the gap could reach 17%. Nickel shows the largest imbalance among the metals studied, with a net-zero refined deficit of roughly 35% of projected demand, driven largely by battery manufacturing.
Aluminum’s projected shortfall of 5 million to 15 million tons, or about 10% of demand, stems not from resource scarcity but from limits on low-cost electricity and smelting capacity. Steel and zinc, with less exposure to the energy transition, are expected to remain more balanced.
Trade policy is compounding the squeeze. By the end of 2025, 1,138 import and export restrictions on minerals were in force — more than triple the 357 recorded a decade earlier. China holds roughly 70% of refining capacity for 19 out of 20 key minerals and produces more than half of the world’s steel, aluminum and refined copper. New supply remains slow to arrive: fewer than 1% of exploration projects become working mines, and development timelines of 15 to 20 years limit how quickly output can respond to higher prices.
“US tariffs are part of a much larger shift in how metals are traded,” said Marcos Carias, North America economist at Coface. For manufacturers in the US, Canada and Mexico, he said, the implication is to plan for higher metal costs over the long term rather than waiting for a trade deal to bring prices back down.
Coface argues the pressure reflects structural shifts on both the demand and supply sides rather than a short-lived cycle, and that higher prices alone may not quickly resolve the imbalance.
