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Democrats winning control of both the House and Senate in the midterm elections would produce a divided government in the United States starting in January, according to assessments by BMO and Wood Mackenzie. Investors face the possibility of tighter data center regulation and stricter federal investment reviews, while pressure to lower electricity prices could create an opportunity for a bipartisan permitting deal. David Brown, a director at Wood Mackenzie, said policy implementation still carries risks.
The election puts the durability of Trump’s mining agenda to the test. Senator Martin Heinrich and Representative Jared Huffman sought an inspector general investigation in August, questioning the government’s conflict of interest as both investor and regulator. BMO said tighter regulation could slow data center development and weaken growth in copper demand.
David Brown, Wood Mackenzie’s global head of integrated energy research, said on Wednesday: “While we see the possibility of permitting reform, how the policy is legislated and implemented remains a risk for the U.S. economy. Deep-rooted partisanship could fuel policy stagnation and regulatory confusion.”
Ryan McKay and Bart Melek of TD Securities said constraints on Trump’s fiscal agenda could push down the dollar and Treasury yields, sending gold back above $4,000 per ounce; copper first weakened on tighter data center reviews and then recovered on supply tightness. Russ Mould of AJ Bell (LSE: AJB) said AI regulation could put the brakes on a popular theme, with gold up 2.7% at $4,038 per ounce in morning trading.
BMO said Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper remain within presidential authority, as do potential tariffs on refined copper starting in January. Wood Mackenzie is optimistic about a permitting deal, citing the shared incentive to lower energy costs and the bipartisan support for the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act, which would tighten review deadlines and litigation windows. But Huffman questioned the proposal in September, and the presidential veto remains.
Wood Mackenzie expects U.S. wholesale electricity prices to rise 46% from 2026 to 2035, with 166 gigawatts of net new gas capacity added over the same period. Its analysts said that without reform, midstream bottlenecks could reappear and push up regional gas-fired power prices. The Senate has scheduled a procedural vote for November 9.
