How Investors Should Prepare if U.S. Elections Get Derailed by a Black Swan Event?

股市风格切换
Published on: Jan 11, 2024
Author: Caroline Kong

Gary Cardone, renowned investor and entrepreneur, warned that the US presidential election, one of the most important events of 2024, would have a significant impact on investors if a black swan event happened.

He argued that 2024 could be a year of many uncertain contingencies, and that one of the risks could include a major cyber-attack in the run-up to Presidential Election Day on 5 November 2024, which could even lead to the election being thrown into disarray. Like the Nordstrom pipeline that blew up last September, and for which no one has been identified as being responsible.

Cardone says that some form of catastrophic event is likely to happen in 2024, whether it’s a war, a cyber-attack, or some unknown destructive event.

Just this Wednesday (10 January), the World Economic Forum (WEF) released a study stating that rapidly deteriorating globalization trends are eroding systemic trust, which will pose the greatest risk to the global economy over the next two years, including a major event similar to COVID and the potential for artificial intelligence (AI) to negatively impact the US election.

In The Global Risks Report 2024, the World Economic Forum noted that more than three billion people will walk out to vote globally in 2024 and 2025, including in the US, India and the UK, with the potential for misinformation and disinformation to be used to widen social and political divides. The resulting unrest could include violent protests, hate crimes, domestic confrontations and terrorism.

Cardone says that alongside all this social and political turmoil will also include central banks going on a money printing spree. When black swan events break out, gold and silver will far outperform other assets, including bitcoin. He noted that gold and silver have not outperformed bitcoin over the past decade, despite a number of events that could favour precious metals.

In an interview with Kitco News last month, Bernard Dahdah, a precious metals analyst at Natixis, said geopolitical risks and a growing trend of counter-globalization will prompt more countries and central banks to further diversify away from the U.S. dollar and into gold.

And Joseph Cavatoni, North American market strategist at the World Gold Council (WGC), noted that geopolitical uncertainty is expected to drive gold prices to record highs in 2024. “Investors are paying more attention to gold because they don’t want to be blindsided in 2024,” he said.

 

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