China’s Imports of Commodities Has Reached a Historic High, Will This trend Continue?

中国大宗商品进口量创历史新高,这一趋势还会延续吗?
Published on: Jul 3, 2024
Author: Amy Liu

According to the published import and export data, in the first 5 months of this year, the imports of major commodities such as crude oil, natural gas, and soybeans in China have increased. The prices and quantities of crude oil and refined oil have risen, while soybeans and copper ore have seen a decrease in both price and quantity. The most striking increase is seen in petroleum imports, with accumulated refined oil imports reaching 22.107 million tons in the first 5 months of this year, a 20% increase.

Contrary to the market impression caused by the long-term economic difficulties centered around the real estate market crisis in China, where sluggish real economic activities are expected to result in weak imports of major commodities, J.P. Morgan’s commodities research department states that the actual situation is quite the opposite—China is currently the main driving force behind global demand for major commodities.

J.P. Morgan points out that in stark contrast to the lackluster macroeconomic growth environment in China, the country’s imports of major commodities surged by 16% in 2023 and made a strong start in 2024, growing by 6% in the first five months of this year.

The trend was identified by J.P. Morgan as commencing in 2018. China consumes nearly 40% of the world’s major commodities, up from 23% in 2006, and heavily relies on energy imports, with over 70% of crude oil and more than 40% of natural gas being imported. Close to 80% of the materials needed for China’s copper demand come from overseas, while the import reliance for materials for aluminum and nickel currently stands at approximately 65% and 95% respectively. Despite dominating global commodity processing, China lacks sufficient upstream resources to meet its demands.

Furthermore, even though China accounted for 60% of global electric vehicle sales in 2023, the country still relies on foreign suppliers for the materials needed to manufacture electric vehicles. It is projected that by 2030, China’s natural gas storage capacity will reach 85 billion cubic meters (16% of demand), on par with the United States’ capacity of 130 billion cubic meters, meeting around 15% of total U.S. demand. China’s grain storage capacity is also comparable to the United States’.

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