$2,500 Has Obviously Become the Next Target for Gold Bulls!

金价再创新高,分析师发出警告
Published on: Aug 15, 2024
Author: Caroline Kong

Because the number of jobless claims rose by 227,000 in the week ending 9 August, lower than the expected 235,000, partially easing fears of recession, U.S. stocks closed at a weekly high on Thursday, and the price of gold also edged higher in afternoon trading. Analysts believe that the gold bulls’ next target of $ 2,500 has been locked, and a recent breakthrough can be expected.

Spot gold traded at $2,460.70 per ounce before the close of trading today, up 0.52% during the session. The CME FedWatch tool currently shows a 100% likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September, with a further cut in November and December around 80%.

Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, said that on technical patterns, gold prices rebounded quickly after touching the May SMA support, showing the market’s firm confidence in gold. On the weekly level, the recovery in gold prices also shows signs of turning stronger, and the Bollinger Bands are expected to extend upwards, signalling that gold prices are expected to hit the $2,500 mark. The support levels below spot gold are near $2438.80 and $2426.90, with near-term resistance at $2471.10, $2483.70 and $2495.00.

Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said safe-haven buying of gold could increase again due to the U.S. election and global geopolitical risks. If the current momentum can be sustained, investors could see further price gains by the end of the year.

A recent JP Morgan report showed that central banks bought more than 1,000 tonnes of gold last year and another 483 tonnes in the first two quarters of 2024. Analysts at JPMorgan noted that central bank purchases of gold this year will be about one-third higher than initially expected, and that price rises will have minimal impact on central banks’ long-term buying programmes, predicting that the gold price will reach $2,500 this year and $2,600 by the end of 2025.

The World Gold Council’s latest survey, released in June, showed that 29 per cent of central banks surveyed plan to increase their gold reserves over the next 12-month period, the highest level since the 2018 launch of this survey.

Meanwhile, global flows to gold ETFs reached $3.7bn in July, the highest in a single month since April 2022. Gold ETF buying was particularly active in the West, with North America in particular seeing inflows of around $2bn, reversing the previous two months of outflows.

Max Layton, global head of commodities research at Citigroup, expects the global gold price to rise to $3,000 an ounce during the next 12 months.

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