The US August Core CPI Was Unexpected, Gold Prices Are Expected to Continue to Rise

美国8月核心CPI出乎意料,金价有望持续上行
Published on: Sep 12, 2024
Author: Amy Liu

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. rose 2.5% year-on-year in August, marking a fifth consecutive month of decline, which aligns with market expectations and is lower than the previous value of 2.9%. Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.2%, consistent with both market expectations and the previous month’s figure. The Bureau indicated that housing remains a “major factor” in the overall economic growth.

The market also noted that the core CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month in August, compared to an estimate of 0.2% and a previous value of 0.2%. While inflation for consumer prices rose slowly in August, core inflation showed some stickiness, significantly reducing the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut next week. Nonetheless, gold prices did not experience significant impact and remained resiliently above the $2,500 mark. Gold has performed robustly recently, rising over 20% year-to-date due to various factors, and reaching a high of $2,531.75 in August, making it an attractive investment.

Ole Hansen, the commodity strategy director at Saxo Bank, stated that geopolitical risks, fiscal concerns, and potential changes in monetary policy—especially after the U.S. presidential election—collectively provide bullish reasons for gold as a hard asset.

Saxo Bank remains optimistic about gold’s future performance for several reasons. Historically, gold has served as a safe haven during times of economic difficulties. Whether the economy experiences mild slowdowns or a full-blown recession, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions will play a crucial role in shaping gold’s trajectory. A lower interest rate environment enhances gold’s appeal. Furthermore, the broader global context characterized by geopolitical tensions, central bank de-dollarization efforts, and economic uncertainty continues to support gold demand.

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