A swift unwind from $80,000 highs has split Wall Street analysts, as ETF outflows and resurgent inflation upend rate-cut bets.
After grinding sideways through most of the spring as investors waited for its next leg higher, Bitcoin has delivered the opposite of what markets expected. The world’s largest cryptocurrency briefly slipped under $60,000 on June 5, hitting its lowest level since March 2024 — a stark reversal barely a month after it traded firmly above $80,000. The sudden downturn has ignited fierce debate over what killed the rally, whether the cycle low is already in, and where prices could plausibly finish 2026.
The immediate trigger for the selloff has been sustained outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds over the past several weeks. The products have seen roughly $4.4 billion in net outflows, flipping year-to-date flows negative and bringing the fund-fueled rally to a halt.
A deteriorating macro backdrop is driving the hasty exit. U.S. consumer price inflation climbed 3.8% year-over-year in April, propelled by a 17.9% jump in energy prices tied to the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict that erupted in late February. The May reading, released June 10, darkened the outlook further: headline inflation accelerated to 4.2%, marking a third straight monthly gain and the hottest print since April 2023.
The inflation rebound has completely upended Federal Reserve policy expectations. Coming into 2025, markets had priced in multiple rate cuts for the year. Now, investors broadly see rate hikes as more likely than cuts in 2026, lifting yields on safe-haven assets like bonds and dulling the appeal of risky assets such as Bitcoin. A prolonged conflict that continues to constrain global energy and fertilizer supplies could push commodity prices even higher, potentially forcing the Fed to hike more than once.
The sharp pullback has split top crypto research firms, with two major players issuing diametrically opposed calls on whether Bitcoin has found its floor.
Standard Chartered says the cycle bottom is already in. Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s head of digital assets research, argues Bitcoin likely bottomed at around $59,000 — a 53% drop from its October 2025 peak — citing easing geopolitical tensions and resilient institutional demand. A potential U.S.-Iran peace deal would ease pressure on oil prices and Treasury yields, he said, while the upcoming SpaceX IPO could cap recent ETF selling as investors finish raising cash for the offering. Renewed buying by MicroStrategy and a return to net ETF inflows would further confirm the bottom, Kendrick added.
The bullish stance marks a reversal from the bank’s February outlook, when Kendrick forecast Bitcoin could fall to $50,000 before recovering to $100,000 by the end of 2026.
Galaxy Digital rejects that view, warning that further downside remains likely. In a research note, the firm said just four of 13 historical bottoming indicators have been triggered so far. It projects a base-case bottom between $40,000 and $46,000, with a deeper capitulation event potentially dragging prices as low as $30,000 to $37,000. The current drawdown is still shorter and shallower than prior bear markets, and key signs of investor capitulation have yet to emerge, Galaxy argued, meaning downside risks have not been fully priced in.
With so much uncertainty hanging over geopolitics, inflation and Fed policy, pinning down a precise year-end price target is not feasible. Instead, analysts frame the outlook through three scenario-based ranges.
For long-term holders, the core strategy holds across all three scenarios: stick to dollar-cost averaging and resist the urge to sell during periods of stress. Bitcoin’s history is filled with massive drawdowns that eventually resolved into new all-time highs over multi-year horizons, and most market observers expect this set of temporary headwinds will ultimately give way to the same pattern in time.
