Over the past year, Coinbase’s stock price has continued to decline, falling from its all-time high of $445 on July 17, 2025, to $157 on July 17, 2026. Investment firm William Blair recently lowered its performance expectations for Coinbase (COIN), the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, but at the same time, the firm reaffirmed its “outperform” rating on Coinbase, advising clients to continue holding the stock and noting that the cryptocurrency market may be approaching a bottom.
William Blair lowered its annual revenue expectations for Coinbase for 2026 and 2027 by 12% and 13%, respectively, while also reducing its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) expectations for both years by 34%. The firm projects that Coinbase’s trading volume will decline by 44% to $669 billion in 2026.
These projections align with Coinbase’s dependence on the crypto market and the impact that the bear market has already had on it. Financial reports show that Coinbase’s revenue for the first quarter of 2026 was $1.4 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 31%; the quarterly net loss was $394 million, compared to a net profit of $66 million in the same period of 2025. As a cryptocurrency exchange, Coinbase derives the majority of its revenue—54% in the first quarter of 2026—from transaction fees. During a bear market, enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies wanes, buyers decrease, and trading activity consequently declines.
Despite this, William Blair remains bullish on Coinbase, citing several reasons: the firm believes that the crypto bear market is approaching a bottom as Bitcoin prices stabilize, with trading volume expected to rebound by 32% in 2027; at the same time, the firm considers that current market conditions are significantly different from the prolonged bear market that began in 2022, and that Bitcoin ETFs, increased institutional adoption, and an improved regulatory environment could all help the market recover more quickly. In addition, although Coinbase primarily relies on transaction fees for revenue, it has already developed new revenue channels, including tokenized real-world assets, prediction markets, and retail derivatives, which are expected to enhance its investment resilience.
On June 30, Coinbase, together with more than 140 financial, technology, and retail companies, jointly supported a new stablecoin called Open USD (OUSD). This move surprised the market, as Coinbase had been a founding partner of Circle’s (CRCL) USDC stablecoin and still retains all interest income generated by USDC on its platform.
Coinbase can either renew its revenue-sharing agreement with Circle or continue to support OUSD as planned for its launch later this year. As one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges globally, Coinbase stands to benefit from the growing adoption of stablecoins regardless of which stablecoin ultimately prevails.
In 2025, Coinbase’s revenue from stablecoins increased by 48% year-over-year to $1.35 billion, accounting for nearly 19% of its total revenue. If the CLARITY Act is ultimately signed into law in a manner favorable to stablecoin yields, the growth rate of this business segment could accelerate further, thereby reducing Coinbase’s reliance on highly volatile cryptocurrencies.
For Coinbase stock, the current moment may present a decent “buy-the-dip” opportunity, but investors should still exercise caution. Although Coinbase has expanded its business boundaries, transaction fees remain its core revenue pillar, meaning that it typically performs best during bull markets and may continue to face pressure during bear markets.
When the crypto market rebounds, Coinbase should rise accordingly, but the timing of such a rebound is difficult to determine. Past bear markets have lasted for multiple years, so investors should remain prudent regarding forecasts that “the market is approaching a bottom.” The safest strategy is to keep the proportion of cryptocurrencies and related stocks within investment portfolios relatively small.
