Fitch Solutions’ market research arm, BMI, has recently revised its forecast for tin prices in 2024, increasing the average annual price estimate from USD 28,000 to USD 30,000 per ton due to supply disruptions in the major producing countries of Myanmar and Indonesia. As of the end of August, tin prices stood at USD 32,500 per ton, with the average price slightly below USD 30,000 for the year so far.
Tin, one of the earliest metals used by humans, has a wide range of industrial applications, with downstream industries including electronics, chemicals, and the automotive sector.
In the current macroeconomic environment, tin prices are influenced by various factors, exhibiting complex volatility. As expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut grow, global financial market liquidity is expected to increase further. Rate cuts could boost investor confidence and potentially drive up prices of commodities, including tin. However, BMI emphasizes supply and demand factors and notes that geopolitical risks could impact the tin market.
Globally, tin resources are primarily distributed in China, Indonesia, and Myanmar, which together account for 52% of the world’s tin reserves.
In Myanmar, tin mining operations remain halted, with significant challenges in resuming production in the short term. Myanmar, the world’s third-largest tin producer, sources most of its tin from Wa State. Wa State’s tin production accounts for 85% of Myanmar’s output and serves as a major supplier to Chinese smelters. Although the mining ban implemented in Wa State in August 2023 was lifted in early 2024, the Man Maw mine—responsible for nearly all of Myanmar’s tin supply—has yet to resume production.
Meanwhile, Indonesia’s tin exports in the first half of the year suffered severe disruption, attributed to government delays in approving mining companies’ annual work plans. As a result, refined tin exports fell by 54% year-on-year, though BMI expects exports to gradually return to normal in the coming months. Indonesia is the world’s largest tin exporter.
While supply is constrained, demand for tin is also improving. BMI highlights an uptick in global semiconductor sales from Taiwan, China’s ongoing investment in its chip manufacturing capabilities, and Japan’s renewed focus on enhancing domestic manufacturing levels—all contributing to demand growth. Additionally, declining exchange inventory levels have also driven up tin prices.
Looking ahead, BMI expects tin prices to maintain a strong upward trend over the next decade, reaching USD 45,000 by 2033, more than double the 2016-2020 average price of USD 18,729.
According to BMI’s forecast, the tin market will enter a shortage phase after 2028.
On the supply side, the lack of new tin mining projects will tighten the tin concentrate market, increasing competition among smelters and limiting the growth of refined production. On the demand side, global tin usage will rapidly increase, bolstered by its applications in electronic products and solar panels (photovoltaic cells), further solidifying tin’s role as a key commodity for the future.
