Weekly Market Recap (November 8) – U.S. Election Concludes, But Gold’s Best Performance May Be Yet to Come

U.S. Election Concludes, But Gold's Best Performance May Be Yet to Come
Published on: Nov 7, 2024

After the announcement of Trump’s election victory, the US dollar surged and gold prices plummeted nearly 3% on Wednesday. However, by Thursday, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and stated that the outcome of the US presidential election would not influence the Fed’s policy decisions in the short term. During the announcement of the rate decision and Powell’s speech, spot gold surged by $50 during the day, an increase of 1.88%.

The major events of the US election and the Fed rate decision have now settled. From the results, the impact of Trump’s election on gold has been short-lived and not as severe as the market had anticipated. This also indirectly reflects that Wall Street’s influence on gold is not as strong as it once was. The dollar’s credibility has suffered irreparable damage, and the trend of central banks around the world moving away from the dollar and buying gold is also irreversible. Thus, gold prices have once again proven their resilience.

In September 2024, Marco Roque, President, CEO, and Director of Cassiar Gold Corp. (TSXV: GLDC, OTCQX: CGLCF), participated in an interview with METALS 100, discussing the progress of the ongoing exploration activities at the Cassiar Gold Property and induced polarization (IP) survey coverage. The company holds a 100% interest in its flagship Cassiar Gold Property located in British Columbia, Canada.

In the long term, the market generally believes that Trump’s victory could stimulate inflation. The new administration might adopt more lenient fiscal policies, coupled with Trump’s stance on restricting immigration and raising tariffs, which could all potentially drive inflation. Some analysts point out that the US deficit and total debt will only continue to expand, and gold remains the preferred choice for preserving value and purchasing power. However, the impact of these factors on gold prices may only materialize in six months as policies gradually take effect.

Additionally, another significant bullish factor is gold ETFs, especially those in developed Western countries. With the Fed’s continued rate cuts, gold ETFs have entered an accumulation phase that will last for a considerable period. The latest data from the World Gold Council shows a global inflow of 95 tonnes into gold ETFs in the third quarter, the first net inflow since the first quarter of 2022. Demand trend reports also indicate a recovery in demand for gold ETFs from both retail and institutional investors over the past six months.

UBS stated that while Trump’s election suppresses gold prices in the short term, the medium-term outlook remains positive, and there is still room for gold prices to rise during the rate-cutting cycle. The bank’s statistics show that during a rate-cutting cycle, regardless of whether the economy is in recession or experiencing a soft landing, the overall trend for gold prices is upward, with greater increases during recessions.

Federal Reserve Funds Gold Interest Rate