Copper prices performed strongly in 2024, even breaking the $5 per pound barrier in May. However, this upward momentum did not sustain until the end of the year, with prices retreating to around $4 per pound. As we step into 2025, a combination of global economic, policy, and technological trends could have major implications for copper prices, with increasing market volatility. This raises the question: Where is the global copper market headed in 2025?
How will these factors influence copper prices? Will prices continue climbing, or will they remain rangebound? Below is an analysis of trends and projections for the copper market in 2025.
On January 20, 2025, Donald Trump will officially be sworn in as U.S. President for his second term. His campaign’s “energy dominance” slogan and promises to loosen environmental regulations have captured the attention of the mining industry. Eleni Joannides, Director of Copper Research at Wood Mackenzie, pointed out that Trump’s plans to repeal a 20-year mining moratorium in northern Minnesota could boost project approvals and production.
Projects restricted during the Biden administration, such as Antofagasta’s Twin Metals Minnesota, could advance under the new administration’s policies. Additionally, controversial projects like Alaska’s Pebble Project, as well as Resolution and Copper World in Arizona, might benefit from Trump’s initiatives to shorten approval times for large-scale mining projects worth over $1 billion.
However, Trump’s trade policies bring uncertainty. For instance, he has threatened to impose a steep 60% tariff on all imports from China, which could disrupt copper imports and increase domestic copper prices. Analysts note that such policies could both pressure demand growth and increase market volatility, creating dual challenges for the resource.
China’s economic challenges in recent years – particularly in its faltering real estate sector – have weighed directly on copper demand. Since China’s real estate sector accounts for approximately 30% of global copper demand, any shifts within this sector could significantly impact the copper market.
While China’s government has introduced various stimulus measures, such as reducing mortgage loan rates, lowering down payment requirements, and supporting the housing market via local government debt, the results have yet to fully materialize. If China’s real estate sector experiences a genuine recovery in 2025, domestic copper demand could rise, driving tighter global supply-demand dynamics and potentially lifting prices.
As the world transitions toward green technologies, copper’s strategic importance has continued to rise. However, the industry is grappling with concerns over underinvestment in copper exploration, which could exacerbate supply shortages in the future. Fortunately, signs of increased focus on exploration are emerging. For example, notable copper projects in the pipeline include:
In addition to greenfield projects, new policies and advanced technologies are expected to improve the discovery rates of copper deposits. Furthermore, major mining companies are increasingly targeting acquisitions of junior exploration firms, which could accelerate the development timeline of copper projects.
Against the backdrop of supply-demand imbalances, rising copper prices have started attracting new capital flows into the copper market. As Matt Badiali, CEO of Quetzal Copper, noted: “Copper has become a strategic priority for global mining companies. Over the next few years, the focus will remain on new copper discoveries and developments.”
In 2025, the factors influencing copper prices will be complex and multifaceted:
As the copper market remains tight and increasingly volatile, investors are advised to closely monitor major economic and policy developments, while conducting thorough due diligence before making decisions.
