On Wednesday (April 30), copper prices more than doubled their April losses in a single trading session, plunging 5.4% to close at $4.61 per pound. For the entire month of April, copper prices fell by 8.4%. If copper is a leading indicator of economic activity, this does not bode well for its outlook, financial markets, or the health of the economy.
John Caruso, Senior Market Strategist at RJO Futures: “When you step back and see Treasury yields falling, oil prices dropping, and copper prices declining, it’s a macro signal of global economic stress and anxiety.”
As an economic “barometer,” the sharp drop in copper prices has intensified market concerns about a global recession. Naeem Aslam, Chief Investment Officer at Zaye Capital, stated that the copper price crash reflects deeper market worries about trade conflicts and an economic downturn. Sevens Report Research analysis suggests that the U.S.-China trade stalemate and recession fears are the main factors suppressing copper prices, with the current market highlighting heightened volatility.
At the end of March, copper prices had surged to a record high ($5.374 per pound) on expectations that the U.S. might impose tariffs on copper. However, as the U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter, copper prices rapidly retreated.
Caruso noted that if copper prices break below the $4.39-per-pound support level, it could trigger further selling. A drop to $4.03 would signal even more severe economic problems. He expects copper prices to fluctuate between $4 and $5 in the short term, but progress in trade talks or policy easing could lead to a rebound.
However, Zaye Capital’s Aslam believes that a recovery in copper prices would depend on easing trade tensions, improving economic data, and supply-side disruptions. He predicts that if conditions improve, copper could rebound to $10,000 per ton (approximately $4.536 per pound) by the end of 2025, but without major positive catalysts, a strong rebound is unlikely.
