Copper prices climbed on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced exemptions for certain products from punitive tariffs, lifting market sentiment.
Late Friday, Trump suspended import tariffs on a range of consumer electronics, including smartphones and memory chips. However, by Sunday, he declared that different targeted tariffs would instead be imposed on phones, computers, and other popular consumer electronics.
Copper futures for May delivery on the COMEX rose to $4.623 per pound ($10,171 per ton) in early trading. Meanwhile, copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) gained 0.5% to $9,195 per ton.
Trade data released by China on Monday for March showed that metal exporters rushed shipments in the last full month before U.S. tariffs took effect, fearing escalating trade tensions.
Steel exports rose 5.7%, hitting a five-month high, while aluminum exports remained stable despite China scrapping export tax rebates for the metal last December. Iron ore imports, however, fell 6.7% during the same period.
Goldman Sachs recently released a macro report forecasting a 100,000-ton surplus in the global copper market in 2025 (compared to a previous estimate of a 180,000-ton deficit). This adjustment was mainly due to downward revisions in refined copper demand growth projections for 2025 and 2026, now expected to rise 1.5% and 2.3% year-on-year, respectively (previously forecast at 3.2% and 1.8%).
The bank expects slowing global GDP growth to weigh on demand outside China. As a result, copper prices are projected to drop to an average low of $8,300 per ton in Q3 2025, before recovering to $9,400 per ton by December 2025 and $10,600 per ton by December 2026 (down from previous forecasts of $10,250 and $11,400 per ton, respectively).
