Gold Price Outlook: Short-Term Correction, Long-Term Bullish

金价展望:短期调整,长期看涨
Published on: Jun 11, 2025
Author: Amy Liu

Wells Fargo, in its latest mid-2025 outlook report, stated that driven by geopolitical conflicts and economic uncertainty, precious metals such as gold are poised to hit record highs by 2026. The report revealed that between February and April 2025, amid a surge in tariff-related uncertainty, the Bloomberg Precious Metals Subindex rose by 12.1%, while the S&P 500 (Total Return) declined by 15.8%. This highlights gold’s role as a hedge in turbulent markets.

Economic and Policy Uncertainty Supports Gold Prices

Analysts believe that the correction in commodity prices will create opportunities for improved economic conditions in the second half of 2025 and into 2026. However, policy shifts and geopolitical risks could still amplify market volatility. The report noted, “Since the 2024 U.S. election, economic policy uncertainty has risen significantly, particularly regarding tariff fluctuations, even surpassing levels seen during the 2020-2021 pandemic.” Additionally, ongoing conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East have further boosted safe-haven demand.

Central Bank and Investor Demand Drive Gains

Wells Fargo expects economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions to drive sustained gold accumulation by private investors and central banks (central bank demand currently accounts for 21% of global gold demand). Meanwhile, declining U.S. short-term interest rates and a modest dollar rebound could provide further support for gold prices.

However, analysts also warn that current market optimism toward gold has reached historically high levels, which may come with short-term pullback risks. They advise investors to “exercise patience and wait for buying opportunities during dips.”

Gold Price Outlook: Short-Term Correction, Long-Term Bullish

Wells Fargo forecasts that gold prices may retreat to the $3,000–$3,200 range by the end of 2025 but could climb to a high of $3,600 by the end of 2026. Analysts recommend that investors optimize their asset allocation, focusing on high-quality precious metal assets to diversify risks and capitalize on the long-term upward trend.

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