Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech last Friday at Jackson Hole sent a “clear bullish signal” for gold and silver, all but confirming that the central bank will restart its rate-cutting cycle in September. At the same time, the gold market witnessed another major turning point in the second quarter, as Harvard University’s endowment fund made a historic large-scale entry into the gold market.
Following Powell’s remarks, precious metals surged, with nearly all of gold’s weekly gains coming from a single-day rally post-speech. After hitting a record high of $3,500 per ounce in April, gold had been consolidating within the $3,300 to $3,400 range for several months. Silver also rose sharply, gaining nearly $1 to reach $39.15 per ounce; platinum advanced 1.8% to $1,379; and palladium increased 0.6% to $1,147 per ounce.
Despite persistent inflation, the Fed appears unable to maintain current interest rate levels. This implies that the negative real returns on holding U.S. dollars will widen, providing strong momentum for gold’s ascent. In the current economic environment, multiple drivers support gold’s upward trend: war, tariff turmoil, debt issues, inflation, and stock market volatility are all reasons to buy gold—and these factors often occur simultaneously.
Even though dollar-denominated gold has risen nearly 80% over the past two years, most U.S. investors have remained on the sidelines. If this situation changes, the market landscape could shift significantly unless demand from central banks, Asia, and the Middle East suddenly slows down.
In a groundbreaking move, Harvard Management Company (HMC), which had long ignored alternative assets, invested $101.5 million in SPDR Gold Shares, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, between April and June. It also purchased 1.906 million shares of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), valued at approximately $117 million. Gold and Bitcoin now account for 15% of its publicly traded portfolio.
This shift could be transformative for other endowment and public pension funds. Previously, public fund managers avoided gold because, as a non-yielding asset that “doesn’t have an EBITDA,” it was considered impossible to value and thus too risky—despite its history of providing low-risk returns and reducing a portfolio’s Sharpe ratio. However, Harvard’s move may change this dynamic and could support gold’s long-term upward trend.
Investment banks are also turning bullish. Last week, following Citigroup and Bank of America, UBS Group raised its gold price targets, increasing its Q1 2026 forecast by $100 to $3,600 per ounce and its Q2 2026 outlook by $200 to $3,700. The bank cited U.S. macroeconomic risks, de-dollarization trends, central bank gold purchases, and strong global investment demand as key reasons for its optimistic stance.
