A new commodity supercycle, distinctively driven by critical minerals, is emerging. Unlike the previous cycle powered by China’s industrialization, the current surge is fueled by the global energy transition and the AI infrastructure race. However, this boom is seeded with volatility due to geopolitical tensions and resource scarcity, igniting a battle for future energy and technology dominance deep within the world’s mines.
A commodity supercycle is an extended period where prices deviate significantly from their long-term trend. History shows these cycles share three key characteristics: a surge in demand, a lagging supply response, and sustained price increases—conditions now fully present in the critical minerals sector.
In a 2024 interview for “METALS 100,” John Passalacqua, CEO and Director of First Phosphate Corp. (CSE: PHOS) (OTC: FRSPF) (FSE: KD0), talked about the LFP batteries market and the company’s project and the infrastructure in Quebec. First Phosphate Corp. (CSE: PHOS) (OTC: FRSPF) (FSE: KD0) is a mineral development company fully dedicated to extracting and purifying phosphate for the production of cathode active material for the LFP battery industry.
Electrification and decarbonization are exploding demand. BloombergNEF forecasts copper demand will grow 53% to 39 million metric tons by 2040, with a potential 30% supply shortfall by 2035. Yet, supply is highly concentrated. Chile and Peru account for over 40% of copper production, while Australia and Brazil control more than half of iron ore output. This concentration is even more pronounced in processing: China refines 40% of the world’s copper, 50-70% of its lithium and cobalt, nearly 90% of rare earth elements, and virtually 100% of graphite.
In response, Western nations are taking action. The G7 and EU are discussing price floors for rare earths to counter China’s supply chain dominance. The Trump administration is negotiating adjustments to a $2.3 billion loan in exchange for up to a 10% stake in Lithium Americas. Meanwhile, United States Antimony Corporation secured an exclusive supply contract with the U.S. Defense Logistics Agency worth up to $245 million.
The stock market reflects this momentum. Canada’s TSX index has delivered a 22.5% return in USD terms this year, far outpacing the U.S. market’s 12.2%. The materials sector, heavily weighted in miners, contributed half of the benchmark index’s gains. Furthermore, the Toronto Stock Exchange’s 2025 TSX30 ranking revealed miners as the biggest winners, claiming 17 of the 30 spots.
