1911 Gold Corporation (TSXV: AUMB; OTCQX: AUMBF)
1911 Gold is Manitoba’s Gold Standard - Ready, Permitted and High-Grade 1911 Gold is an Emerging Gold Producer, with Significant Cash Flow Generation and District-Scale Growth Potential
In the week ending October 17, 2025, gold market made another history. Spot gold posted a strong weekly gain of nearly 6%, marking the fifth “nine-week consecutive gain” since the 1970s. Despite a single-day pullback of 1.69% to $4,252.20 per ounce on Friday, gold prices remained firmly at high levels throughout the week, having earlier touched a record peak near $4,400.
Bull-Bear Tug-of-War Amid Historic Rally
This nine-week rally has driven gold prices up by over 25% cumulatively, significantly exceeding the 19% gain seen in the comparable 2020 period. However, divergence is emerging within the market. Alex Kuptsikevich, Chief Market Strategist at FxPro, noted, “The gold market has never seen ten consecutive weeks of gains.” He believes prices are severely overbought and a technical correction is inevitable.
This caution was particularly evident during Friday’s session: profit-taking in the North American trading session pushed gold down by approximately $165 from its highs, marking the largest single-day drop since May. Historical data also hints at potential trouble: research from Paul Ciana, Technical Strategist at Bank of America, indicates that in the past, whenever gold rallied for seven consecutive weeks, prices often moved lower subsequently.
Institutions’ Deep-Seated Logic for Targeting $5,000
Despite heightened short-term volatility, several leading international institutions remain steadfastly bullish on gold’s long-term prospects. In its latest report on October 17, HSBC explicitly raised its 2026 gold price target to $5,000 per ounce. The supporting logic reflects a market consensus:
Accumulating Systemic Risks: The congressional budget impasse leading to a prolonged government shutdown is exacerbating recession fears. Robert Minter, Director of ETF Strategy at abrdn, pointed out that fund managers’ allocation to gold is only 2.4%, suggesting significant room for increase compared to gold’s 6.7% share of China’s forex reserves (77% for the US).
Monetary Policy Pivot Expectations: Ricardo Evangelista, Senior Analyst at ActivTrades, emphasized that dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other officials lay the groundwork for rate cut expectations, continuously creating a favorable environment for gold.
Structural Demand Shift: Phillip Streible, Chief Market Strategist at Blue Line Futures, observed sustained expansion in gold ETF demand, while weak economic data elevates regional banking crisis risks, strengthening gold’s safe-haven appeal. The HSBC report specifically noted that new buyers entering this rally might hold gold long-term for diversification purposes rather than short-term speculation.
Near-Term Outlook
Technicals suggest gold needs consolidation after breaking above $4,300. However, fundamental support remains solid. Inflation data is key: despite the government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will still release September CPI data as scheduled, which will be crucial for the market to assess the direction of real interest rates. Furthermore, during this data vacuum period, aside from existing home sales and preliminary PMI figures, limited data releases due to the shutdown could amplify market volatility.
Analysts generally believe any pullback will be seen as a buying opportunity. Historical precedent shows that after peaking in August 2020, gold underwent a two-year adjustment but ultimately launched a stronger three-year bull market at the end of 2022. The current backdrop of rising global debt and erosion of confidence in the US dollar is even more pronounced than in that previous period.
In summary, the gold market is caught between technically overbought conditions and strong fundamentals. While it may continue experiencing high volatility for the remainder of October, deep corrections are likely to attract long-term capital inflows, driven by ongoing central bank purchasing, escalating geopolitical risks, and growing demand for alternatives to dollar-denominated assets.
As JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon stated, in the current environment, gold reaching $5,000 or even $10,000 per ounce is not far-fetched. Investors need to be wary of short-term fluctuations but should pay more attention to the profound logic of monetary system transformation behind them.
