Following significant volatility in the digital asset market, the globally renowned asset management firm Vanguard announced on Tuesday that it will allow clients to purchase cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and mutual funds managed by third parties on its brokerage platform. These include products like the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT.US) from BlackRock. Additionally, products linked to other mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum are also now available for trading. The company stated that this move aims to provide clients with more open avenues for asset allocation. However, it emphasized that it currently has no plans to launch its own cryptocurrency products, reiterating its longstanding view that crypto assets are speculative. Analysts believe that the rapid growth in client demand is the primary driver behind Vanguard’s “defensive” business adjustment.
This business adjustment comes at a time of intense volatility in the crypto market. The price of Bitcoin surged over 7% on Tuesday, briefly surpassing $92,000 before retracing. Despite the rebound, its price remains approximately 28% below the all-time high set in October 2025. Market analysis points out that since the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, their average cost area has been around $84,000. This zone is seen as a critical support level; if prices fall below it in the future, it could trigger more sustained selling pressure. This market backdrop highlights the complexity of Vanguard’s decision to open access to such high-risk products for clients at this juncture.
As Bitcoin prices continue to weaken, multiple on-chain data indicators suggest the market may be approaching a phase bottom. Among the most watched, the “capitulation indicator” has climbed to a record high. This indicator reflects the level of “pain” the market is enduring by analyzing the distribution of investors’ average holding costs. Its historical peaks have often signaled that prices may be nearing lows. For instance, this pattern appeared in both Q3 2024 and Q2 2025, followed by significant market rebounds. Concurrently, the total market capitalization of stablecoins—a crucial source of market liquidity—has resumed growth after four consecutive weeks of decline. Some investors view this as a potential signal of returning capital. However, this indicator cannot precisely predict the timing of a reversal. Historically, there have been instances where prices only truly bottomed after the indicator peaked multiple times. Therefore, the specific timing of a market reversal remains uncertain.
Despite the presence of bottom signals, market analysis holds more cautious expectations regarding the magnitude of any future rebound. Some viewpoints note that Bitcoin’s bull market cycles exhibit “exponential decay,” meaning the growth amplitude of each cycle may gradually diminish as the market matures. This implies that even if the market successfully establishes a bottom in the current zone and initiates a new upward trend, its gains might be more moderate compared to earlier cycles. Overall, the current crypto asset market finds itself at a complex intersection: institutional participation is undergoing subtle shifts, key technical support levels are being tested, and on-chain data hints at a potential inflection point. Market participants are closely monitoring subsequent developments.
