1911 Gold Corporation (TSXV: AUMB; OTCQX: AUMBF)
1911 Gold is Manitoba’s Gold Standard - Ready, Permitted and High-Grade 1911 Gold is an Emerging Gold Producer, with Significant Cash Flow Generation and District-Scale Growth Potential
As global geopolitical uncertainties continue to ferment, the precious metals market is experiencing significant divergence. David Wilson, Director of Commodities Strategy at BNP Paribas, recently predicted that gold prices are poised to break through the $5,000 per ounce mark, while silver may face a deep correction after reaching $100.
In an interview with Bloomberg on Monday, Wilson stated, “Gold thrives on uncertainty. We witnessed this last year – prices consistently hit new highs – and that uncertainty is still at play now.” He pointed to two new key factors currently driving gold prices: the Trump administration’s new tariffs on Greenland and market concerns regarding the Federal Reserve’s independence and its interest rate path.
“All supportive factors for gold are currently in play,” Wilson stated plainly. “We predicted back in November that gold would reach $5,000 sooner or later. That target seemed bold at the time, but with prices now firmly above $4,700, $5,000 is within sight.”
Turning to the silver market, Wilson believes that although silver continues to set new highs, the physical shortages that drove the strong rally in 2025 are easing. The silver market is much smaller and less liquid than gold’s, and began moving in a parabolic fashion in mid-December. Analysis suggests that news such as India accepting silver as collateral, potential Chinese export restrictions under new licensing arrangements, and concerns over U.S. tariffs on critical minerals collectively led to physical silver flowing from European markets to the U.S.
However, a shift is emerging. After the White House announced last week that it would not impose tariffs on critical minerals for now, silver prices immediately corrected by 7%. Wilson observed, “The physical market is definitely easing, lease rates are dropping back substantially, so these tightness factors seem to be dissipating. Another consideration is that once some speculative funds start looking to take profits, we are likely to see a fairly significant correction.”
Analysts predict that silver will reach $100 per ounce sooner than previously expected, but will subsequently retreat from those highs.
Peter Kinsella, Global Head of FX at Union Bancaire Privée (UBP), echoed this sentiment. In his interview with Bloomberg, he stated bluntly, “Considering the 50-60% rally in just two or three months, buying silver at current levels is pretty insane.” He pointed out that the narrative of a severe physical silver shortage might not hold up under closer scrutiny. The beta of silver to gold has already become very pronounced. The historical average gold-to-silver ratio is around 65, and it is currently at extremely low levels.
Kinsella added, “For silver to rise significantly from current levels, one must assume the gold-to-silver ratio drops to around 40 or 30, which is historically very low. If gold sees a moderate rise towards, say, $5,000 by year-end, and we assume a modest increase in the gold-to-silver ratio, it would place silver roughly at current levels by year-end. Therefore, I find it very difficult to buy silver at these prices.”
He emphasized that just in the first three weeks of this year, events like the kidnapping of the Venezuelan President and tensions over Greenland show that we have entered an era of very clear resource nationalism among major powers. Geopolitical themes can trigger market volatility at any time, and currencies are not necessarily the best way to play it. “Allocating to precious metals is the best approach, and gold definitely has further upside.”
Kinsella from UBP specifically noted that the rise of global resource nationalism means gold’s monetary attributes will be valued more. Silver, on the other hand, has dual attributes as both a precious and industrial metal. The surge in 2025 was primarily driven by expectations of physical shortages. As U.S. tariff policies become clearer and supply chains adjust, these tightness factors are easing. Its smaller market size and poorer liquidity also mean it is inherently more volatile.
Analysts warn that if market risk appetite changes or the dollar unexpectedly strengthens, silver could face a more severe correction than gold. Silver significantly outperformed gold in 2025, but this excess return is becoming unsustainable. Investors are reminded that while chasing the potential high-volatility returns of silver, they need to be vigilant about the amplified correction risks due to its speculative nature, avoiding buying at highs and becoming the last holder in a game of “pass the parcel.”
