Gold Breaks $4,900 as Analysts Lift Targets to $5,400, Even $6,000

Dollar and Oil Both Break 100, Yet Gold Rallies Anyway
Published on: Jan 22, 2026

Gold prices surged nearly 2% on Thursday afternoon, breaking above $4,900 per ounce to set a fresh all-time high, as investors rushed back into traditional haven assets.

The rally marked a swift recovery from a short-lived retreat on Wednesday, when prices dipped after President Trump announced a postponement of proposed 10% tariffs on NATO countries. Yet the pullback proved temporary, with buyers quickly returning to push both gold and silver to new record levels by Thursday afternoon.

The rebound underscores a broader trend in recent months: sustained inflows of defensive capital into gold and silver amid persistent geopolitical and policy uncertainty. Even as tariff concerns briefly eased, investors showed little desire to exit precious metals positions.

Goldman Sachs Raises Forecast

In a recent report, Goldman Sachs lifted its gold price target for December 2026 to $5,400 per ounce, up more than 10% from its previous forecast of $4,900. Analysts cited “stickier” positioning by private investors hedging against macro policy risks. Unlike short-term hedges around specific events such as elections, current demand stems from longer-term structural worries—including fiscal sustainability—making these holdings less likely to unwind quickly.

Gold’s strong advance is supported by multiple demand sources. Prices have soared more than 70% over the past year, driven by shifting geopolitical dynamics and doubts over the independence of major central banks such as the Federal Reserve. Demand currently rests on three main pillars:

  1. Central banks—especially in emerging markets—continuing to diversify reserves, with monthly purchases estimated around 60 tonnes.
  2. Western gold ETF holdings, which have grown by roughly 500 tonnes since early 2025.
  3. Private sector participation via physical buying and options trades as a “currency debasement trade” amid prolonged policy uncertainty.

Goldman noted that risks to its revised forecast are “skewed significantly to the upside.” Should global policy uncertainty persist, private diversification could push prices even higher. The main downside risk would be a meaningful easing of concerns over long-term fiscal and monetary policies in major economies, potentially triggering large-scale unwinding of macro-hedge positions.

Bank of America’s More Bullish Call

Meanwhile, Bank of America delivered Wall Street’s most aggressive gold forecast yet. Analyst Michael Hartnett projected the metal could reach $6,000 per ounce this spring—about 22% above current levels. The new target comes as gold has risen 11% in 2026, trading just below $4,900.

Gold has climbed nearly 175% over the past three years, starting from around $1,800 in January 2023, marking one of the strongest and steepest bull runs in its history. Most Wall Street institutions expect the rally to continue, with prices breaking above $5,000 this year.

The steady climb reflects investors’ moves to diversify portfolios and hedge against rising geopolitical tensions, with gold widely viewed as a safe haven. Continued robust buying by global central banks has also supported prices. “History is no guide to the future,” Hartnett wrote in a client note, “but the average gain in gold’s past four bull markets was about 300%, lasting around 43 months. Extrapolating that suggests $6,000 by spring.”

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