The Wall Street financial giant Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) returned to the top of the equity capital markets (ECM) revenue rankings in the fourth quarter of last year. This achievement comes as major Wall Street banks actively compete for underwriting roles in large-scale projects expected to go public on the U.S. stock market by 2026, such as OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX. Simultaneously, Goldman Sachs is closely monitoring significant investment opportunities in the prediction markets, aiming to benefit from these rapidly growing platforms that allow betting on real-world events.
According to reports, Goldman Sachs’ equity underwriting revenue in the last three months of 2025 was approximately $521 million, surpassing Morgan Stanley’s $494 million and JPMorgan Chase’s $416 million. Global capital markets activity has grown for four consecutive years, although the total volume of IPOs, equity sales, and convertible bond activities reached $841.8 billion, still only slightly more than half of the peak level in 2021. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon stated that the revenue figures for the quarter are unlikely to be surpassed in the short term. He predicted that the overall level of equity capital markets in 2026 would remain significantly below the 2021 peak but slightly higher than the 2025 level.
Goldman Sachs concluded 2025 with a strong finish by leading the $7.2 billion IPO of U.S. healthcare giant Medline Inc., the largest IPO on the U.S. stock market that year. Despite handling some large IPOs in the U.S., Europe, and India, as well as active convertible bond issuances, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley saw only single-digit year-over-year growth in their equity capital markets revenue in the fourth quarter. For the full year of 2025, Morgan Stanley performed the best, increasing its annual equity capital markets revenue by 23% to $1.97 billion.
The financial market widely expects 2026 to be a breakthrough year for equity capital markets business, as several large private technology companies consider going public. Solomon noted that many large companies are queuing up and approaching critical decision-making moments for their listings. He also anticipates that large private equity firms may bring more portfolio companies to the public market.
Goldman Sachs is exploring entry into prediction markets, studying how to benefit from this relatively lightly regulated but rapidly growing market. Solomon revealed that a team has been conducting in-depth research in this area, and he recently held lengthy meetings with leaders of prediction market companies such as Polymarket and Kalshi.
If Goldman Sachs enters the prediction markets, it will face fiercer competition with platforms like Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD). Solomon believes that prediction market contracts regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission have the potential to intersect with Goldman Sachs’ business, but the pace of expansion may be slower than some investors expect.
Prediction markets have gained significant attention since the U.S. presidential election at the end of 2024. These platforms offer “event contracts” based on real-world events, settled in a “yes/no” format. The introduction of related contract trading by platforms like Robinhood and the entry of traditional exchanges have significantly enhanced the industry’s credibility and user reach. Prediction markets are not only expanding into areas like sports but are also being used by some Wall Street institutions to hedge against the probabilities of macro or corporate events.
