Since the start of 2026, Bitcoin’s (BTC) performance has been a source of significant pressure for cryptocurrency investors. After retreating from its peak late last year, the world’s largest digital currency by market capitalization has lost nearly half its value in just over four months, currently trading around the $65,000 mark. More worryingly, market confidence in its future trajectory has plummeted to freezing point.
On the well-known prediction market platform Polymarket, traders now see only a 10% probability that Bitcoin will reach the $150,000 mark by the end of this year. This data undoubtedly casts a shadow over market sentiment for the coming months.
The narrative of Bitcoin as “digital gold,” once held in high regard, is increasingly becoming less convincing. Just over a year ago, prominent figures, including Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, compared Bitcoin to virtualized, digital gold. However, the reality is that over the past year, the price of gold has surged by approximately 73%, solidifying its status as a traditional safe-haven asset. In contrast, Bitcoin’s high volatility prevents it from reliably assuming the same role. If an asset can lose half its value within months, traders will naturally question its dependability as a store of value. Currently, investors seeking downside protection are more likely to turn to gold, while viewing Bitcoin as a risk asset akin to highly speculative tech stocks.
This narrative shift has also directly impacted the policy front. Previously, the Trump administration harbored ambitious hopes of turning the U.S. into a “Bitcoin superpower” and actively promoted the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve. However, the advancement of this strategy heavily relied on optimistic market sentiment. As Bitcoin’s price momentum wanes and related legislation stalls in Congress, the plan to purchase one million Bitcoins to build the “crypto capital of the world” appears increasingly impractical amidst the complex economic issues facing the U.S. What was once a hot-button campaign issue now seems unlikely to stir significant waves in the upcoming midterm elections.
A mutually reinforcing relationship appears to have formed between market sentiment and price action. As noted by Lynn Martin, President of the New York Stock Exchange, prediction markets are increasingly viewed as a reference for financial market trends. When enough traders believe the $150,000 price target is out of reach, this expectation itself can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, dampening upward price momentum.
Despite this, there are still steadfast bulls swimming against the current. Business intelligence firm Strategy (MSTR) is one of them. According to the company’s latest regulatory filing, between February 23 and March 1, it spent approximately $204.1 million to add another 3,015 Bitcoins, at an average purchase price of around $67,700 each. Following this increase, Strategy’s total Bitcoin holdings have climbed to approximately 720,700 coins, with an average acquisition cost of $75,985. Buoyed by this news, the company’s stock price closed up 6.29% on Monday.
To fund its Bitcoin purchases, Strategy has long relied on its “at-the-market” equity offering program for selling common and preferred stock, recently raising approximately $237.1 million through this method. Company Chairman Michael Saylor has repeatedly reaffirmed his determination to buy Bitcoin “forever.” However, market skepticism regarding the company’s financial model, which is highly dependent on Bitcoin, is also growing. Alongside the correction in crypto asset prices, Strategy’s stock has fallen about 10% year-to-date, underperforming the broader market.
