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As the Strait of Hormuz closure enters day 11, the real battle isn’t in the Middle East—it’s in the U.S. Treasury market. And two strategists now see gold heading to $6,000 and $10,000. Markets expected geopolitical crisis to push yields lower. Instead, the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.2%. Behind this anomaly lies a powerful mechanism—and stunning gold forecasts.
“Iran doesn’t have to beat the U.S. military—just the bond market,” says Luke Groman, founder of Forest for the Trees.
The logic: Energy-importing nations need dollars when oil spikes. To get them, they sell their most liquid asset: U.S. Treasuries. That selling pushes yields higher, increasing U.S. borrowing costs. Foreign Treasury holdings now stand at a record $9.4 trillion. U.S. debt-to-GDP has ballooned from 31% in 1973 to 122% today. In this leveraged environment, energy shocks feed back through bond markets in a self-reinforcing cycle.
Groman’s conclusion: “If I’m right about the Strait of Hormuz, gold breaks above $6,000 by midyear.”
If $6,000 is the short-term spark, $10,000 reflects deeper shifts. Chantelle Schieven, Head of Research at Capitalight Research, sees gold hitting $10,000 within five to seven years. “At the current trajectory, we get there by 2029.”
Three structural pillars support this view:
First, record global debt constrains central banks. They can’t raise rates aggressively without damaging highly leveraged economies. Second, geopolitics are shifting tectonically. Since Russia’s invasion and Western sanctions, nations question dollar asset safety. “Gold carries no counterparty risk,” Schieven notes. Third, the world faces prolonged fragmentation—Middle East conflicts, Taiwan tensions, deglobalization. Gold thrives on uncertainty.
Despite volatility—February saw 12 days with $100+ moves—long-term momentum remains intact. Schieven sees limited downside below $5,000, as geopolitical sentiment won’t reverse soon and debt isn’t shrinking. Groman puts it simply: “Trust is in a bear market. Gold is finite issuance, infinite face value, and nobody else’s liability. It’s the final settlement.” He recommends retail investors hold 15% to 25% in physical gold.
Whether short-term shock pushes gold to $6,000 or long-term structural forces drive it to $10,000, the case for gold is no longer just about inflation or rates. It’s about world order reshaping. And that, strategists say, is a road that leads to gold.
