Recent volatility in the global energy market has drawn widespread attention, with continuously rising gasoline prices creating ripple effects throughout the U.S. economy. For the average consumer, the increased expense is felt directly with each fill-up, but the impact of rising energy costs extends far beyond this—prices for heating oil, propane, and other fuels are also climbing, and surging natural gas prices are directly pushing up electricity costs. In the transportation sector, due to the heavy reliance of aviation, freight, and shipping on fuel, transport companies are broadly beginning to impose fuel surcharges, ultimately placing comprehensive upward pressure on prices at the retail level.
Amidst this energy price storm, the situation of U.S. retail giant Costco (COST) has captured market attention. As one of the largest retailers in the nation, this membership warehouse chain stands out in the industry due to its unique business model: its profit core is derived from membership fee revenue, while it consistently maintains minimal profits on merchandise sales. Its private label, Kirkland Signature, covers a vast array of product categories. Numerous well-known brands are even willing to accept lower profit margins to partner with Costco for private-label manufacturing, valuing its immense sales volume. The bulk-packaging sales strategy further strengthens its price advantage, continuously attracting consumers to purchase in-store.
It’s noteworthy that Costco’s business portfolio includes gas station operations, creating a special connection with the energy market. When gasoline prices rise, consumers are more inclined to refuel at Costco, which offers discounted fuel prices. This traffic-driving effect often translates into increased foot traffic in the stores. Looking at historical experience, during the energy crisis triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, despite facing supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures, Costco still recorded a 10.4% increase in comparable store sales (excluding the impact of fuel price fluctuations) in the quarter ending August 28th of that year, achieving an annual growth rate of 10.6%. While the macroeconomic environment at the time, where consumers still had savings, did play a boosting role, the resilience demonstrated by its business model was even more critical.
The current market environment differs significantly from 2022: the consumption stimulus effects of the post-pandemic era are gradually fading. However, Costco still exhibits stronger resilience compared to its peers. Attracting customers with gasoline sales, locking in consumer spending through its membership system, and controlling costs via economies of scale—this proven business model is helping the retail giant navigate the latest round of energy price shocks. Analysts point out that while persistently high oil prices will test the supply chain management capabilities of all retail enterprises, Costco’s unique operational structure provides it with more buffer space when dealing with cost pass-through pressures. As supply chain challenges continue to evolve into 2026, the performance of this membership-based retailer warrants continued attention.
