Data from the analytics platform CryptoQuant shows that despite a rise in institutional buying, Bitcoin demand remains under pressure, indicating that the broader market is still selling the token. As of the end of last month, the “apparent demand” metric, which measures Bitcoin demand relative to the amount of newly mined Bitcoin, stood at a negative value of approximately 63,000 coins. This situation occurred against the backdrop of a period of strong buying in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and continued accumulation of Bitcoin by Strategy Inc. (MSTR), the digital asset company owned by Michael Saylor.
The report notes that selling by retail investors and other market participants has exceeded new buying by institutions. The persistent contraction in demand since late November 2025 confirms that the broader market remains in a distribution phase. The market is facing a situation where new demand is being offset by selling from existing holders, a dynamic that could limit gains even when institutional interest appears to be building.
Although Bitcoin barely ended its previous five-month losing streak in March, recording a modest rebound of about 2.2%, the overall recovery momentum has since waned. The core issue is that large holders, known in the market as “whales,” have shifted from a long-term accumulation model to an aggressive net selling model. This wave of selling has directly countered the bullish sentiment generated by recent spot ETF inflows and increased corporate holdings.
Medium-sized investors, who had been adding to their positions, are now slowing their purchases, removing another layer of support. In recent weeks, Bitcoin demand within the United States has also weakened. The Coinbase (COIN) premium index has turned negative again, indicating that U.S. investors are no longer competing to drive up Bitcoin’s price.
Although corporate institutions led by Strategy Inc. continued to buck the trend and expand in the first quarter of 2026, pushing their total holdings to a new high of approximately 762,000 coins, and U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of about $1.32 billion in March, reversing a four-month outflow trend, these purchases have still been unable to fully absorb the overall selling pressure in the market.
However, CryptoQuant suggests that if the macro environment improves, particularly if the U.S.-Iran conflict de-escalates, Bitcoin’s price could rebound in the short term. A reduction in geopolitical tensions could serve as a positive near-term catalyst. Looking ahead, with selling pressure still dominant, the market remains cautious about Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory. Without an explosive surge in demand, the transfer of holdings between large holders and institutions will continue to dominate market volatility. The current dynamic—”institutions struggling to absorb supply while large holders exit”—suggests that Bitcoin may need a longer period to digest the excess supply from high-level selling before a genuine new trend of upward movement can begin.
If investors have some cash on hand and are not averse to risk, they might even consider increasing their cryptocurrency holdings. One benefit of this bear market is that Bitcoin and other popular cryptocurrencies are significantly cheaper than they were six months ago. If investors remain bullish on the long-term prospects of cryptocurrencies, this can be viewed as an opportunity to build positions at a lower cost.
