Despite the collapse of mega-merger talks between mining giants Glencore and Rio Tinto, the global mining M&A market delivered impressive results in the first quarter of 2026.
According to the latest data from White & Case, global mining mergers and acquisitions reached $21.6 billion in Q1 2026, with a total of 121 transactions. This marks the strongest start to a year for mining M&A since 2023. Compared to the same period last year, total deal value increased by 34%, while transaction volumes rose steadily from 117 in Q1 2025 and 102 in Q1 2024.
This robust start continues the recovery momentum seen in 2025, when full-year mining M&A hit $93.7 billion, the highest level in 13 years.
Behind the impressive numbers, the logic of mining M&A is undergoing a profound shift. Rebecca Campbell, global head of mining and metals at White & Case, pointed out that capital is accelerating toward assets that can support resilient supply chains for critical minerals.
“In an increasingly fragmented geopolitical landscape, deal activity is focused on assets that can deliver reliable, long-term supply of strategically important materials within stable operating and regulatory environments,” Campbell said. This means buyers are no longer chasing resource volumes alone; they are placing greater emphasis on “geopolitical security” and “supply chain stability.”
In other words, the valuation system in mining is being reshaped — critical mineral projects located in friendly jurisdictions with clear decarbonization pathways are commanding significant premiums.
Notably, traditional equity acquisitions are giving way to more flexible strategic partnerships. White & Case’s 2026 Mining and Metals Survey shows that 32% of respondents believe strategic partnerships will be the most common form of transaction this year.
A typical example comes from Brazil. Serra Verde Group, a large-scale rare earths producer, recently secured 565 million in financing from the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation and completed a roughly 2.8 billion business combination with USA Rare Earth. The transaction aims to create a fully integrated, vertical supply chain from mining to magnet manufacturing that does not rely on Asia.
Thomas Pate, a partner at White & Case, commented: “Mining projects of long-term strategic importance are increasingly being advanced through strategic partnerships rather than traditional ownership structures. At the same time, government capital is playing a more active role alongside private capital.”
Looking ahead, 29% of survey respondents identified precious metals — especially gold — as the most likely segment for consolidation over the next 12 months, followed closely by critical minerals at 27%. With gold prices hovering near record highs, the curtain may have just risen on a new wave of M&A among gold miners.
