On Monday, Bitcoin broke through the $70,000 mark for the first time since March, rising more than 4% at one point to approximately $70,300 before paring some gains. At the same time, major crypto assets such as Ethereum and Solana also strengthened in tandem. This rise in Bitcoin (BTC) is primarily driven by a short squeeze in the market. Although the prospects for a ceasefire negotiation in the Middle East remain unclear, with Iran rejecting a temporary truce proposal and demanding a complete end to the conflict, the overly bearish market positioning from earlier periods has begun to adjust rapidly. Diana Pires, Chief Commercial Officer of sFOX, stated that market sentiment was clearly bearish heading into the weekend, with significant short positions accumulated, and news of a possible ceasefire triggered large-scale position squaring, thereby pushing prices higher.
Data shows that over $145 million in short positions have been forcibly liquidated in the past 24 hours. CoinGlass noted that as Bitcoin prices rose, more shorts were forced to stop losses and exit. Damien Loh, Chief Investment Officer of Ericsenz Capital, said that in a low-liquidity environment, shorts shifting to other assets and covering positions intensified the “short squeeze” upward movement.
However, from a longer-term perspective, Bitcoin remains within a trading range. Since the outbreak of the Iran conflict in late February, Bitcoin has largely fluctuated between $60,000 and $75,000, briefly rising to nearly $76,000 at one point before retreating. For most of the past two weeks, its price has stayed below $70,000. Blockchain data firm Glassnode pointed out that whenever Bitcoin approaches the $70,000–$80,000 range, market liquidity is thinner and there is notable profit-taking pressure, limiting further upside. Meanwhile, the options market is shifting toward a more defensive positioning. In the derivatives market, the largest open interest is concentrated in $60,000 put options. Data from Coinbase’s Deribit shows that investors continue to hedge against potential downside risks through put options.
On the other hand, institutional capital flows have shown signs of improvement. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of approximately $22.3 million last week, a notable recovery from nearly $300 million in net outflows the previous week. However, overall market participation remains subdued. Glassnode noted that capital participation—whether in exchanges, ETFs, or on-chain activity—has not significantly recovered, suggesting that the sustainability of the current rebound still needs to be observed. Analysts believe that for a more sustained upward trend to be supported, trading volume, capital inflows, and on-chain activity will need to improve in tandem.
