When Sandisk (SNDK) was spun off from Western Digital in February 2025 and listed independently at $38.50, few could have predicted that this decades-old memory and storage company would become the biggest dark horse of the AI boom in just over a year. As of May 15, 2026, Sandisk′s stock has soared to approximately $1,410, a cumulative gain of over 3,640% – including a 560% jump in 2025 and another 526% year-to-date in 2026, temporarily ranking first on the Nasdaq-100’s top performers list for the year.
However, facing a stock that has risen 36-fold in 15 months, the most natural question for investors is: buying now – are you catching a torch or catching a falling knife?
The core driver of Sandisk’s meteoric rise is the explosive demand for NAND flash products from AI data centers. NAND, a type of non-volatile, high-density storage medium, is a critical component for training large language models and storing massive amounts of data. As hyperscale data centers continue to expand, memory has become both scarce and expensive.
The company’s fiscal third-quarter 2026 results (ended April 3) fully confirm this trend: revenue of $5.95 billion, up 251%. Adjusted earnings per share reached $23.41, compared to just $5.15 in the previous quarter. Data center revenue surged 645% year-over-year to $1.46 billion, while edge computing revenue rose 295% to $3.66 billion. Management guided fourth-quarter revenue of approximately $8 billion (up 321% year-over-year), with gross margins around 80%.
Even more noteworthy is the company’s shift from sporadic spot sales to a new business model based on multi-year agreements. It signed three such agreements in the third quarter alone and another two in the fourth quarter. This model of locking in customers and revenue provides visibility into cash flow for years to come.
But no matter how good the story, price matters. Sandisk’s current stock price implies a trailing twelve-month price-to-sales ratio of approximately 16x, compared to just 4.5x at the beginning of this year. Despite the company’s stunning growth rate, a 16x P/S multiple sits in expensive territory within the broader tech sector. Any negative news regarding slowing order growth, customer inventory adjustments, or macroeconomic fluctuations could trigger a sharp correction.
Furthermore, the stock’s liquidity characteristics warrant caution. While average daily trading volume is around 18 million shares, the absolute price has skyrocketed from roughly $200 at the start of the year to $1,400 – raising the barrier to entry for retail investors and amplifying swing. The stock’s 52-week range this year is $35.79 to $1,600 – such volatility is a severe test of holding psychology.
As of mid-May 2026, Sandisk’s long-term investment thesis remains intact: AI infrastructure build-out is far from over. The global AI market is expected to grow from $390.9 billion in 2025 to $3.5 trillion by 2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of over 30%. As a key supplier in the NAND space, Sandisk has pricing power, a new business model, and a strong balance sheet.
However, investors must reset their expectations: the 3,640% gain of the past year cannot be replicated. Future returns will depend more on earnings growth than valuation expansion. At current levels, the stock is more suitable for investors with higher risk tolerance, focusing on position control, building in batches, and mentally preparing for potential drawdowns of over 30%. For more conservative investors, it may be better to wait for the next bout of market panic to offer a better entry point. After all, even the best company becomes a risk when bought at too high a price.
